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RUSH: There’s huge polling data.  I can’t wait to get to this for a host of reasons.  It’s polling data from battleground states.  Hillary Clinton is plummeting.  But there’s even more to this that I want to point out.  We’ll get to it in mere moments.

Also, major, major backslash aimed at Hillary Clinton from Bernie Sanders supporters.  The Drive-Bys did not tell you the truth about this yesterday.  Bernie Sanders supporters were not wildly embracing Hillary Clinton.  They were not happy that Bernie endorsed her.  They’re feeling sold out.  They’re mad at Bernie for giving up. They’re mad at Bernie for pulling out. They’re mad at Bernie for selling out.  Bernie supporters never did understand what Bernie was there for.  They never did understand that Bernie was never gonna be the nominee.

Bernie Sanders supporters either didn’t believe it when they were told or they didn’t consider it, but they were never, ever aware that Bernie Sanders was never gonna be allowed to be the nominee of the Democrat Party.  They bought it hook, line, and sinker that he had a chance. He was winning all those primaries and he was not getting the delegates and they were getting fit to be tied, and they are not happy on a number of levels.  And it shows up in these battleground state polls.

Anti-Hillary Democrats are rising in number.  You know, we acknowledge there are anti-Trump Republicans.  We know that.  I mean, there’s still a faction of them trying to deny Trump the nomination at the convention.  I’m not kidding.  You’re probably aware of this.  There’s some Never Trumpers out there now trying to talk John Kasich into accepting the Republican nomination if they can find a way to run a coup to keep Trump from getting the nomination.

We know that there are some anti-Trump Republicans, but nobody ever stopped to think that there were a serious contingent of anti-Hillary Democrats, but there are.  And, according to this polling data, there may be more, expressed as a percentage.  There may be a greater number of anti-Hillary Democrats than there are anti-Trump Republicans.  But there’s a bunch of things that need to be said to put this in perspective, not just give you the polling data raw, because how we got there is fascinating in and of itself.


RUSH: Just last week, ladies and gentlemen, I, your host, was accused of being in something called “Data Denial Syndrome.”  I was accused, along with Newt Gingrich and countless others, of being in Data Denial Syndrome, meaning that I was one of them who refused to believe the polls when the polls presented news that I disagreed with.

And this was bad! It is very, very, very bad to suffer from Data Denial Syndrome.  It think it was me. It was Romney.  I forget who else. But there were three of us prominently mentioned as suffering from Data Denial Syndrome, and it was about polling data that showed Trump just getting his clock cleaned by Hillary.  “The Donald and his supporters are running out of time to face this reality. The election is four months away,” and Limbaugh and others who have yet to recover from Data Denial Syndrome, refuse to admit the truth, that Trump’s a disaster, that Hillary is pulling ahead, that Trump is not even doing anything to close the gap.”

And they cited how I was one of many who didn’t believe the 2012 polls.  And I cop to that.  I had my reasons.  Okay.  So just last week, I’m lumped in a group suffering Data Denial Syndrome because I won’t accept “the reality” that Trump is losing and losing big and that Hillary is pulling ahead.  The polling data was very clear and these people in Data Denial Syndrome, they look at the polling data, and if it doesn’t suit ’em, they won’t believe it.  Accompanied to that was: These kind of people are not helpful to you.

Okay, fine.

So where we are today?

There’s a story from July 1st.  “Bloomberg: Clinton Spending Roughly $500,000 a Day on TV Ads, Trump Zero.” The Story goes on to say how Hillary is cleaning Trump’s clock. Trump isn’t even campaigning! He’s talking about himself and a “Mexican” judge.  He’s not even campaigning.  Hillary’s pulling ahead.  Hillary’s spending all this money.  Trump doesn’t have a chance.  Story from today: “Swing-State Stunner: Trump Has Edge in Key States.” Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio.  (Gasp!)  Hillary is losing ground in key swing states? Despite Trump having no money, no apparent campaign?  Now, what am I to do, since I suffer Data Denial Syndrome?

Am I supposed to not believe this ’cause it’s different now than it was a couple of weeks ago?

What, am I to do?


RUSH:  No, no.  The point is that two weeks ago the experts said that it was over for Trump.  The polls said so! Hillary was pulling ahead. I was accused of being a “data denier.”  Now two weeks later, Hillary is falling, and Trump is gaining on her in swing states.  What about the people that two weeks ago said this wasn’t gonna be the case ’cause of the polling data?


RUSH: Now, I want to go through this one more time because two weeks ago you remember there was devastating polling data. Hillary Clinton was pulling ahead. In one poll she was up by 11, and another poll she was up by six.

And she was spending all this money, and she was on a roll, and she was running ads — millions of dollars’ worth of ads — and amplified by free runs of the ads in addition to what was being purchased and paid for. It was all focused on how Trump doesn’t have the temperament and how Trump’s not qualified.  What was Trump doing?  Nothing!  Trump’s out there talking about himself, saying, “I… I… I…” Doing this, this, this. “Wall, wall, wall,” and wasn’t talking about Hillary. He did not zero in on her on the FBI investigation of emails, didn’t talk about it.

People are pulling their hair out. My God, remember even had that piece, is Trump actually not want to win this?  “Is Trump Actually Trying to Get Hillary Elected?”  There was genuine panic out there.  And in the midst of this, there was a piece… I forget who wrote it.  I don’t even remember where it ran.  I remember talking about it. It accused me and Newt and Romney and others of being in data denial, meaning: We would look at polling data unfavorable to our desires, and we would choose not to believe it, and that was not good.

It was damaging. When you don’t look at the polls and trust what they say — when you think the polls are wrong and you tell your audience the polls are wrong — you’re doing a disservice.  “We all must believe the polls,” was the message.  And I was in data denial, dating all the way back to the 2012 presidential race.  And I admit to being in data denial then.  Okay, so, given that, given that two weeks ago it was over…

Don’t forget the tone of those stories.  We had Republicans, we had conservatives wringing their hands. “Oh, my God, it’s over! Oh, God, Hillary’s pulling away! Oh, no. Trump’s not even trying! Oh, God! Trump’s not even campaigning! Oh, jeez, what are we gonna do?” And there were stories about a coup and who knows what else.  Just two weeks ago, it was over, and the people telling us this were looking at polling data and telling us, “You better believe it. It’s over.”

Well, I don’t know if they said, “It’s over,” but it’s looking bad and it doesn’t seem to be any way Trump can recover.  He might get a bump out of his convention, but that won’t last.  I mean, it was doom and gloom this time two weeks ago.  So now… There was another story about two weeks ago on July 1st. “Bloomberg:  Clinton Spending Roughly $500,000 a Day on TV Ads, Trump Zero — The data offers a first glimpse into Clinton’s general election advertising strategy as well as her campaign’s view of the 2016 electoral map.”

These are spots that she was running with all the money that Trump wasn’t answering. He wasn’t addressing. He wasn’t running his own ads, wasn’t doing anything. It was doom and gloom all over the place in Trump Central.  The Hillary ads were being run in Ohio and Florida. “Swing states! Oh, my God, Hillary’s gonna wrap it up, right?  Oh, my God! Oh, God! Trump’s losing! Oh, God, no — and Limbaugh’s out there denying the data!” So that’s two weeks ago.  Listen to the story today.

July 13th, Politico: “Swing State Stunner: Trump Has Edge in Key States.”  (Gasp!)  Pull quote: “In the poll release, the school suggested…” It’s a Quinnipiac poll.  By the way, the Quinnipiac poll, there’s another story here that says the Quinnipiac poll is “the” poll now. The Quinnipiac poll is the gold standard of polls.  It’s considered to be “the” poll.  If you want to trust a poll out there, trust Quinnipiac.  Okay, fine.  What does it say?

It says that “the investigation could have played a role, pointing to other lingering questions about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness. ‘While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails,’ Quinnipiac pollster … said, ‘she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty.'”

The Politico story on this is written in sheer panic. “Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election’s most important battlegrounds?”  Oh, my God! Oh, no!  “New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in … Ohio.” Well, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.  What about two weeks ago when I was in data denial and they were telling us that Trump had lost it?

“Oh, my God, it’s over! Trump’s losing ground. There’s no way he can gain this back.  Hillary’s running all these ads.”  See, people are looking at this through the traditional, professional political prism, which I have warned people you can’t do with Trump.  There’s just no way to plug Trump into this traditional paradigm that everybody uses to judge these things, and the proof is right here.  Trump hasn’t spend a nickel.  Hillary has spent a million dollars slamming Trump, and she has lost ground because of the news of the day, the FBI investigation.

Plus the overall impression of her that she’s it is not honest and not trustworthy.  And that perception precedes the arrival of Trump.  Hillary has baggage galore that she brings into this race. Regardless what Trump does with it, it’s there.  And we had the whole scenario yesterday where Bernie basically gets out and endorses her, and his supporters are not happy at all, and we have come to find out in further polling data that there is a huge percentage of anti-Hillary Democrats out there.

There were never anti-Bill Clinton Democrats.  You couldn’t find enough anti-Obama Democrats to put in a phone booth when there were phone booths.  But there’s more anti-Hillary Democrats than there are anti-Trump Republicans.  And the Drive-Bys don’t understand it.  And they can’t deny the data; they’re the ones writing stories about data deniers and how it’s really wrong to do that.  So now they’ve got this polling data that they hate, but they can’t deny it, if they are to remain consistent.

“The race is so close that it’s within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42% to 39%.” Oh, my God! Oh, my God! “In Ohio, the race is tied, 41% to 41%. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43% to 41%. Clinton’s campaign responded to the surveys by cautioning that while the swing states were always expected to be close, the urgent stakes of a possible Trump election remain high.”

Oh, really now?  “[T]he swing states were always expected to be close”? No, they weren’t.  Two weeks ago they weren’t gonna be close.  Two weeks ago, it was over.  Two weeks ago, Hillary was running all these ads just like at politics manual says you have to do, and she was targeting Trump and she was saying, “Trump’s unfit! He doesn’t have the right temperament. He doesn’t have the qualifications. He’s a basic reprobate.” It was supposed to kill him, supposed to doom him, supposed to end his campaign.

What was Trump doing?


Nobody could find him.

He’s out there talking about himself, talking about the judge. Whatever he was doing, he wasn’t talking about the FBI story, wasn’t talking about Comey. A couple of tweets here and there, but he wasn’t hitting Hillary on it, and look what happened.  I’m telling you, there is sheer panic out there in the Drive-By Media.  So now we get this story from Fox Five New York, not Fox News.  This is the Fox affiliate New York City, Channel 5.

“Election Polling at a Crossroads?  Why Polling May Be on the Cusp of Big Changes.”  Ho-ho-ho-ho.  See how this works?  You have your traditional manual of how to elect candidates, and it involves hiring the right consultants who will go out and relate with the right lobbyists, and they’ll buy the right advertising and they’re put together the right campaign, and they’ll run roughshod over your opponent.  And whatever they buy, they get 15% commission.

That’s how they earn their living, the consultants.  And the more money you have and the more money you spend and the more trash you get out on your opponent, the better you win.  Like Jeb Bush and the $115 million he spent to get six delegates.  So now that the formula doesn’t seem to be working… Hillary’s running millions of dollars’ worth of ads targeting Trump as a reprobate and a heathen and who knows whatever else. She’s losing ground big time.

Trump is gaining ground.  Trump’s not gaining ground as fast as she’s losing it, though, gotta be honest about that.  These polling numbers show that he’s not gaining ground as fast as she’s losing it; he’s still trickling upwards, if you can trickle upward.  But all of a sudden now: “Why polling may be on the cusp of big changes.”

Yes, you see, when polling will no longer serve our purposes, why, we have to come out with a story that basically is how polling is changing.  And the upshot of this story is this.  “Some say political polling itself is at a crossroads. … Pollsters used to be able to use automatic dialers to quickly connect with people on their home phone. But the rise of cell phones has made traditional scientific polling much tougher to do.”

Aw, poor babies.

“A 1991 law called the Telephone Consumer Protection Act made it illegal for pollsters to use automatic dialers to call people on their cell phones. That added time, coupled with what Rutgers Public Policy professor Cliff Zukin has said is a rapidly declining response rate and the cost of traditional telephone polling has shot up. ‘It’s gotten maybe 3 or 4 times as expensive as it used to be just two elections ago,’ Zukin said.” Which is probably why some of the polls were so wrong about Romney.  It’s all become a matter of waiting and guesswork.  I mean computer models, I’m sorry, like they use in global warming/climate change.

“And while many see all this amounting to a death warrant for traditional telephone polling –” Note that it’s only a death warrant because all of a sudden Hillary is supposed to have built on that 11-point lead, don’t you see?  Two weeks ago, 11-point lead, six-point lead, depending on the poll, Trump doing nothing, Hillary spending millions.  Why, she was supposed to continue shooting up, but she’s not.

“And while many see all this amounting to a death warrant for traditional telephone polling,” meaning we can’t rely on our polls to produce the outcome that we want.   Doug Schwartz, the director of the Quinnipiac poll, one of the most well-known, now proclaimed to be the gold standard, said, “You know, polls up to this point using telephones have  been very accurate and we see no reason to stop doing it. I don’t see any problem with the way traditional telephones are doing what we’re doing.

“If we weren’t calling people on their cell phones – we’d have a huge problem. We would be underrepresenting young people,” but we’re calling them. We’re getting hold of people on their cell phones. We’re getting to touch base with them and they’re telling us what they think.

“On a typical weeknight all 150 stations at Quinnipiac’s polling center are filled with pollsters making calls and conducting surveys.” So the poll that is now reputed to be the gold standard said, “We’re not have any problems.”  And it’s that poll which shows Hillary leaking severely against all odds.  So here’s old Rush, the old data denier himself, not believing the stuff two weeks ago.  He-he-he-he-he-he-he.

Okay.  Let’s go to the audio sound bites.  Top of the list, start at number one because there’s a freak-out over this in the Drive-By Media.  We’ll start on Good Morning America.  George Stephanopoulos speaking with ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd.  Matthew Dowd used to be a Republican consultant, analyst, what have you, back during the Bush years. He’s a moderate Republican, but now he feels dirty, I guess.  He’s basically become a centrist. Well, he always was one.  But now he’s signed up with the Drive-Bys, for all intents and purposes.  So just run these two back-to-back, Stephanopoulos and Matthew Dowd number one and two.

STEPHANOPOULOS:  Let’s get to those new Quinnipiac polls out this morning.  Probably the most surprising is that big flip in the state of Florida over the last month, eight point Hillary Clinton lead, now a deficit.  What do you think is going on?

DOWD:  Something’s moved in the country over the course of the last few weeks.  I think it had a lot to do with the FBI director’s press conference and then the hearing.  That has affected her trust numbers which have always been problematic.  This is a huge problem for Hillary Clinton.  It looks like she has a national lead, but in the electoral states she is either tied or behind in them, and so it sets up a scenario where she could win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.  It’s concerning.

STEPHANOPOULOS:  This is even before the Republican convention next week?

DOWD:  Yes, George, it’s before the convention and it’s before Donald Trump’s vice presidential announcement which will give him an added bump.  This should be a concerning thing to Hillary and her campaign.

RUSH:  Wait a minute.  Two weeks ago it was over, two weeks ago Trump — oh, I don’t need to repeat myself.  But now in the battleground states, oh, no.  Oh, jeez.  What are we all going to do?  We just excoriated a bunch of people for being data deniers, which means these people can’t go out and deny this data without being hypocrites, except that they are.

CBS This Morning, New York Times Magazine, chief national correspondent Mark Leibovich talking with Charlie Rose, who said, “How do you assess the tightening of the race in these swing states, Quinnipiac poll and the decline in some of the numbers for Hillary?”

LEIBOVICH:  Swing states tend to go back and forth, maybe more than other states.  This is a snapshot.  I mean, all polls are snapshots, but this in particular does encapsulate the last 10 days during which the FBI investigation was completed.  It was a rough few days for Hillary Clinton, I think this reflects that.  I think in the big picture, though, I mean, I think that the upshot of the FBI investigation is that this will not be a long-term problem.  I think this could be something she recovers from.

RUSH:  Wishful thinking.  Oh, it’s just a snapshot, oh, we can’t believe it because, oh, it doesn’t really mean anything, oh, it doesn’t have any legs.  Her lack of honesty, the perception she’s not trustworthy, that’s got legs.  Those characteristics applied to her have been around long before Trump even thought about becoming a contestant for the Republican presidential nomination.  (imitating Leibovich) “All polls are snapshots.  But in this particular case the upshot of the FBI investigation is not going to be a long-term problem.”

Yeah, well, two weeks ago Hillary was set to run away with this.  And what is this, swing states, snapshots, rough few days for Hillary?  I thought it was a rough few days for Trump.  Hillary was spending millions of dollars on ads creaming Trump, disparaging Trump, unsuitable, unqualified, bad temperament.  I thought that was supposed to overcome whatever problem, snapshot problem she had with the email thing, for crying out loud.


RUSH:  And, by the way, folks, it’s not just the Quinnipiac poll on swing states. In today’s McClatchy/Marist poll, Hillary is only leading nationally by three.  That’s within the margin of error.  There was an NBC poll yesterday that showed Hillary’s numbers are slipping, nationally.  So it’s not just a Quinnipiac poll.  Time to hit the phones.  Trump’s VP looks like Pence or Christie, and there’s a little more to pass on than that, if we can trust what is being fed us.  Not sure I do.


RUSH:  It’s another poll.  Another poll.  The Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist.  It’s a new poll.  “Trump and Clinton Running Neck and Neck in Ohio and Iowa.”  This goes along with the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that shows Hillary only up by two nationwide.  Clinton and Trump running neck and in the case Ohio and Iowa.  To add to the Quinnipiac.  My question is this.  Mr. Snerdley — he’s in New York — are you paying attention or are you out…? (interruption) Let me ask you a question.

Why are we still polling?  Because the people that are in the know — I mean, all the experts — were telling us that presidential elections are decided in June.  You remember that?  So why are we still even polling?  Hillary won the election in June, right?  Or she should have. She was running all these ads and Trump wasn’t reacting to any of them. He wasn’t running any of his own. (interruption) Well, I know, that’s the point. Nothing is. They continue to try to plug this campaign into their manual or their playbook.

I’ve warned them about this since last summer, that they can’t do it.  They’re dealing with a different kind of animal this time in the Trump campaign.  It doesn’t fit.  You can’t categorize it, predict it, analyze it the way you analyze somebody that’s in politics all their life and has the business aspects of politics down pat, that follows the rules and the precepts and all that.  Trump’s winging it.  There’s no way you can predict, analyze, with somebody that you don’t know what he’s gonna do the next and the day after that.


RUSH: Just one more little add-on on this Quinnipiac poll that shows the race tightening in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The reason Hillary Clinton is plummeting is dropping approval ratings on honesty and moral standards.  In other words, she’s losing ground strictly on her own.  It’s not the result of any Trump effort.  He’s not running any ads against her.  He mentions her during his campaign appearances, but there isn’t any Trump ad buy out there that’s characterizing Hillary.

She’s doing this all on her own.  She is transmitting to people she’s not honest and that her morality is up for grabs.  That’s important to note, folks.

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