{"id":8501,"date":"2014-08-27T18:35:38","date_gmt":"2014-08-27T18:35:38","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2014-08-27T18:35:38","modified_gmt":"2014-08-27T18:35:38","slug":"explaining_the_expectations_gap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2014\/08\/27\/explaining_the_expectations_gap\/","title":{"rendered":"Explaining the Expectations Gap"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a><\/p>\n

RUSH: I got a bunch of e-mails during the top-of-the-hour break about the point that I made that I haven\u2019t seen any Republican Party messaging<\/a>. “This is what we stand for. This is who we are. This is how things are gonna change if you vote for us. This is what we\u2019re gonna stop. This is what we\u2019re gonna do. We believe in lower taxes. We believe in securing the border.” Whatever it is, I don\u2019t see any of that, and I got a bunch of e-mails from people, “Hey, Rush, that\u2019s right, but I don\u2019t see any from the Democrats, either.” <\/p>\n

And I said, “Now, wait just a second.” And I paused, mentally, and I pondered that, and there may be some truth to that. I know what the Democrats do. They\u2019re doing it. I know what they\u2019re going to do if they keep winning because they\u2019re doing it. The Democrats telegraph who they are every day, ideologically. Now, they may not be packaging it officially in campaign ads and this kind of thing, and maybe my superior knowledge and understanding of these people just makes me think that they do package themselves because I know them so well. But I had to stop and think about it, and they\u2019re not doing so, either, really, other than the fact they\u2019re in power and governing and are implementing what they believe. <\/p>\n

I mean, that\u2019s a hard, cold reality that, for some of us, is impossible to miss. But for the low-information crowd out there, is clueless. Now, the Democrats, the Democrat Party is a disease. The Democrat Party is poison. The Democrat Party could not win if they were up front about what they intend to do. But they never are. Snerdley, what I\u2019m talking about, the Democrats, in the Obama campaign we\u2019re gonna lower the sea levels. The earth was gonna heal. They were gonna take care of women because Republicans are engaged in a war against them. They do get specific with that. <\/line><\/p>\n

They don\u2019t get specific and honest about their agenda, but they present one. And the Republicans aren\u2019t. And, to me, you know, I think it\u2019s a win-win. I happen to believe that more Americans live their lives as traditional Americans always have, in a conservative sense, not just political, but culturally, morally, I think it\u2019s why the country\u2019s still got a chance. But they need to be supported. People need to know that they\u2019re in the majority in the way they think. Right now too many people in the majority of thinking think that they\u2019re a dwindling minority, and I would think the Republican Party would want to do something about that. <\/p>\n

But then the Republican Party, when it comes to, let\u2019s say one issue, amnesty, they\u2019re all for it just like the Democrats are, and they\u2019ve caught some hell by being public about that. More and more what\u2019s happening is that all of these consultants and the people that run the PACs and raise money and put together the TV ads, they seem to be the ones who are defining what a party is for, and what it stands for, and that can change from candidate to candidate. <\/p>\n

Now, about this expectations business. This is this is kind of in the weeds, but I\u2019m gonna mention it \u2019cause there\u2019s two things here. First up, from yesterday is a story from the Pew Research Center<\/a>, and the headline is: “Republicans Open Up Wider ‘Expectations Gap\u2019 Ahead of Midterms.” It\u2019s a survey based on Republicans will be more optimistic that 2014 will be better for them. So it\u2019s really a survey of optimism and attitudes and expectations. Now, I know this sounds kind of esoteric, but stick with me on this for just a second. <\/p>\n

“With just over two months before the midterm elections, Republican voters are widening the ‘expectations gap\u2019 with the Democrats. About six-in-ten (61%) Republican and GOP-leaning registered voters think their party will do better than in recent elections — roughly double the share of Democrats (32%) who feel similarly about their party\u00c2\u2019s chances.”<\/p>\n

So to boil this down, 61% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters think they are going to clean up. Only 32% of Democrats think they\u2019re gonna clean up. Now, “This gap has not reached the same levels of the GOP\u00c2\u2019s margin before their large 2010 gains or the Democrats\u00c2\u2019 expectations in their 2006 sweep of both houses of Congress.” But it\u2019s close. The Republican expectations gap is very close to what it was in the 2010 midterms. This could be why there isn\u2019t any polling, although there\u2019s two groups of pollsters. <\/p>\n

You would have Republican pollsters who\u2019d be polling for their candidates, and they probably are, but not releasing any results, and then you\u2019d have the national pollsters, the ABC\/Washington Post, the CBS\/New York Times, NBC\/Wall Street Journal, they\u2019re not releasing any polling results. We can only conclude from that that there aren\u2019t any that are favorable to the Democrats or Obama, so they\u2019re not gonna go there. And absent any polling data, there\u2019s not any discussion about a wave election, because the media\u2019s become so dependent on polls. <\/p>\n

In polite terms I\u2019d say it\u2019s a shame. In street lingo, it\u2019s outrageous. It\u2019s just absurd, the degree to which polls have now become ways of making news and shaping public opinion rather than the false reporting that accompanies them, which is, “This is a reflection of public opinion.” <\/line><\/p>\n

That\u2019s not why people do polls anymore. Well, they do; the internal people poll to find out what\u2019s going on, but the Drive-By polls are really meant to shape public opinion. And if you have a set of polls that show, for example, a huge Republican wave election, there\u2019s no way you\u2019re gonna release \u2019em. And if you think that\u2019s what your poll\u2019s gonna show, there\u2019s no way you would even take it. So you won\u2019t even be accused of hiding your results; you don\u2019t even have any. <\/p>\n

So then we come back to expectations. Okay, why does that matter? What the hell is this? Well, let\u2019s go to Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post<\/a> today. He writes the following: “Republicans Think They Are Headed to a Big Victory This Fall. Does that matter? — Yes, Republicans are much more convinced that they are headed for a win on Nov. 4 than are Democrats.” I think he\u2019s bouncing off this Pew survey. “But,” he writes, “Republicans were also convinced that they were going to beat President Obama in 2012. And that didn\u2019t work out so well. So, do expectations — high or not — matter? The answer is they can — especially in a midterm election.” Thinking you can or will win can help the turnout, especially in midterms, which are very dependent on turnout. <\/p>\n

So the point that Cillizza\u2019s making is that this expectation gap could very well manifest itself in a huge Republican turnout advantage. Republicans expect they\u2019re gonna win big because they assume everybody\u2019s gonna be out voting against what\u2019s going on. So that\u2019s why this expectations gap is even relevant today, because it\u2019s all part of the context here that we\u2019re exploring, why there aren\u2019t any polls. And why, therefore, there is no discussion of a wave election that might manifest itself for the Republicans. And then, we\u2019re back to the same old thing: Why aren\u2019t the Republicans contrasting themselves with the status quo? Not against the theory of what will happen if the Democrats win; the Republicans can say, “Look what did happen, look what has happened, and we\u2019re gonna stop it.” <\/p>\n

But they\u2019re not saying it. I know what it is. The consultants and others have convinced elected Republicans that anything like that is gonna be construed by voters as partisan, and voters don\u2019t want partisan. Oh, no, no, no, no. Voters want politicians to get along, don\u2019t you know. Voters want them to work together. The voters are tired of politics. The voters are tired of partisanship. The voters are really, really tired of all the arguing and the bickering. So don\u2019t tell anybody that you disagree with Obama. Don\u2019t tell anybody you disagree with the Democrats. No, no, no. Because that\u2019s just gonna scare the moderates and the independents, and they\u2019re gonna vote Democrat. And in this way, I think consultants and handlers and all these PAC people can end up paralyzing a party.<\/line><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t like this assumptions game. I have tell you, I don\u2019t like this expectations game. This expectations game can backfire on you. For example, if you are relying on this expectations gap for a big turnout, well, what if so many of your voters expect to win big, they decide they don\u2019t have to go vote. Since everybody\u2019s gonna be voting, you know what? I don\u2019t have to worry about it. I think it can work to suppress turnout. <\/p>\n

Now, what about the old saw that we always hear when the election season actually begins, from candidates and parties alike? That you have to give people reason to vote for you, because if you don\u2019t, you\u2019re not gonna have a mandate after you win. If all you do is win as the opposition, well, you can conclude that the voters want you to do the opposite of what\u2019s going on, but that may not be the case. The Republicans found that out not long after 1994, if we want to be honest with ourselves. Back in 1994, the Republicans, Mr. Newt and the gang, made the mistake of assuming that this massive win of the House for the first time in 40 years meant that there had been a transformation within the country, within the population of liberal to conservative. <\/p>\n

The assumption was then, everybody voted, voted because the Contract with America and knew exactly what the Republicans were gonna do and fully supported it, and it turned out that wasn\u2019t the case. There was just genuine anger, and people were fed up with the corruption and all the other things going on in the Democrat Party. There was the House bank scandal and the post office. Plus, there was a lot of anti-Clinton sentiment at the time in the 1992, \u201993, \u201994 campaign, midterms. And so the Republicans stopped teaching, they stopped explaining why they were doing what they were doing, and they were set up. The Democrats and the media immediately just laid into \u2019em as typical conservative, racist, sexist, bigots.<\/p>\n

\"original\"And then we got, it wasn\u2019t very long after that, Republicans wanted to starve kids by cutting and eliminating the school lunch program. And the Republicans didn\u2019t know what hit \u2019em, \u2019cause they\u2019re sitting there thinking the country has shifted and moved in their favor. So this business of not offering, not explaining what you stand for, and not giving yourself a mandate — now, I know there\u2019s no mandate, per se, here because there\u2019s no national election taking place, there\u2019s no presidential election. That\u2019s where mandates come from. I understand all that. Where I\u2019m coming from, I think, especially right now, six years into this mess, I think a very artful, honest, heartfelt explanation of who we are and what we believe and what we want to do, would result in its own landslide. <\/line><\/p>\n

Now, I understand that any time this is tried, the media is gonna launch and call conservatives liars. I know it\u2019s a battlefield out there. And it\u2019s clear that the decision has been made not to hit the battlefield. We\u2019re gonna let the PACs take the field and we\u2019re gonna let the consultants take the field and we\u2019re gonna let individual House and Senate candidates define. We\u2019re not gonna take the field. And I don\u2019t know. I just think it\u2019s a missed opportunity. But I happen to believe in what we stand for, folks. That\u2019s why I\u2019m not afraid of it. <\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Now, let me give you some interesting stats. You know, there was an election in Florida yesterday. Were you aware of that? There was a primary, and Charlie Crist is trying to reemerge up against Governor Rick Scott. Well, wait \u2019til you hear some of these numbers. Are you ready? In the primary here in Florida yesterday, Governor Scott, Republican, got 217,000 more votes than Charlie Crist. And, are you ready? Overall 127,000 more Republicans voted Tuesday that Democrats, even though Democrats outnumber the Republicans in registration by 455,000. <\/p>\n

So there are 455,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida. Rick Scott gets 217,000 more votes than a former — was he ever governor? Yeah, that\u2019s right, governor, attorney general, Crist, the George Hamilton tan guy. The point is that there was huge Republican turnout, exactly what the expert thinking is: stay away, don\u2019t do anything, just let people vote. And 127,000 more Republicans voted than Democrats. <\/p>\n

(interruption) But, I know, that\u2019s the other side of it. Rick Scott has not been on the sideline. Rick Scott has been working the state. He has been campaigning, and he has been explaining what he\u2019s gonna do. He\u2019s got a track record, there\u2019s no question, got a good record. But still, the numbers here on turnout go to that story from Pew on the expectations gap. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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