{"id":4581,"date":"2015-12-22T19:21:20","date_gmt":"2015-12-22T19:21:20","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2015-12-22T19:21:20","modified_gmt":"2015-12-22T19:21:20","slug":"more_evidence_of_the_trump_effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2015\/12\/22\/more_evidence_of_the_trump_effect\/","title":{"rendered":"More Evidence of the Trump Effect"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a><\/p>\n

RUSH: Here\u2019s Kent in Sugar Land, Texas, great to have you on the EIB Network. Hi.<\/p>\n

CALLER: Oh, Merry Christmas, Rush, to you and yours, and thanks for taking my call.<\/p>\n

RUSH: You bet, sir. Happy to have you here.<\/p>\n

CALLER: Thank you. The question I had is with Hillary most likely to be the nominee of the Democrats, do you think they\u2019re going to have I guess a reverse Operation Chaos, where Democrats are going to be voting in our open primaries and or else registering for Republicans to mess up the Republicans\u2019 primary?<\/p>\n

RUSH: Well, let\u2019s see. If they did do that, who would they be doing their own reverse Operation Chaos against?<\/p>\n

CALLER: Well, I thought you\u2019d ask that. Either Jeb, because everybody\u2019d stay home, or else maybe Trump, because they don\u2019t believe he has a chance.<\/p>\n

RUSH: I don\u2019t know that they would do their own reverse Operation Chaos, although it\u2019s possible \u2019cause they were so bothered by it. They even made a movie about it starring George Clooney.<\/line><\/p>\n

CALLER: I didn\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Yeah, I think was The Ides of March or some such thing. The first third of the movie was how the Democrat Party was so blown out of the water by Operation Chaos. They were paranoid of it. So I think they probably would engage in something. But in truth, I think the greatest threat — well, hard to name one, I think the biggest problem, potential problem for Hillary and the Democrats and all those powerful forces is overconfidence. I think they\u2019re gonna end up believing the polls that show right now the only Republican that beats Hillary is Marco Rubio. And that\u2019s gonna change. <\/p>\n

I think presidential preference polls right now are a little premature. They\u2019re not that instructive because it\u2019s too far out, and we don\u2019t really have nominees now, so it\u2019s just interesting trends and talking points for people that live and die with polls, but I don\u2019t think it tells us a lot. As opposed to the polls now in Iowa and New Hampshire, they\u2019re getting closer and closer to having results that you can trust, because we\u2019re close now, and the people voting in those cauci and New Hampshire primary and so forth, they\u2019re thinking about it more seriously now. And if we get into January it\u2019s gonna be even more intense in that regard. <\/p>\n

But I think if Democrats, if Trump\u2019s the nominee, they think they\u2019re gonna skate. And I think that they\u2019ll largely go into a defensive posture, they\u2019ll have all their PACs running oppo research trying to destroy whoever the Republican nominee is. But Operation Chaos, reverse Operation Chaos, I don\u2019t know. I mean, if they tried it, we would spot it, you know, right off the bat we would spot it. The way Operation Chaos worked is the Democrats didn\u2019t know until it was too late that it was happening, \u2019cause they don\u2019t listen here. <\/p>\n

The Democrats do not listen to this program. They have an assigned media watchdog outfit to listen to this program, Media Matters, and then Media Matters tells the media and the Democrats what supposedly is said by me on this program, and they always get it wrong. They make it up, take it out of context, or what have you. <\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

From the Morning Consult: Why Donald Trump Performs Better in Online Polling<\/a>. This is, I think, more proof of the phenomenon that I, El Rushbo, was the first to posit and name the Trump Effect. But I can\u2019t take total credit for it because there is the Wilder Effect out there, which is much the same thing. And it is the theory that Trump has actually got stronger support than some of the polls indicate because the media has been so obvious in its opposition to Trump and so obvious in a disgust that when a pollster comes calling, the respondent will not say he or she is for Trump because they don\u2019t want to be ridiculed by the pollster or they don\u2019t want the pollster to think they\u2019re one thing or another, so they lie. And that underreports Trump\u2019s strength and the reason they think this \u2019cause online polling is where Trump just scorches it, and online polling is anonymous. <\/p>\n

“Republicans are more likely to say they want Donald Trump in the White House if they are taking a poll online versus in a live telephone interview. And, if you\u2019re a highly-educated or engaged Republican voter, it turns out that you\u2019re far less likely to tell another human being you want Trump as president.”<\/line><\/p>\n

Now, stop and think of that. If you are highly educated, engaged, if you\u2019re an informed Republican voter and you are for Trump, it turns out you\u2019re far less likely to tell somebody than other people are, because you believe that most of your friends couldn\u2019t possibly be for Trump because they either say so or the media says that, so you don\u2019t say what you really think. And I can provide anecdotal evidence to back this one up. The golf course, folks. I know some of you stick-to-the-issues people don\u2019t like it when I talk about golf or the golf course. But that\u2019s an excellent proving ground for this this this concept. <\/p>\n

And the conclusion of this piece near the bottom: “How much this divide matters is hard to gauge. … What this divide does suggest is that some polling may be understating Trump\u00c2\u2019s actual level of support.” Now, you can hear the heads of the Drive-By Media exploding when they ponder this. And of course you can envision the heads of the Republican leadership exploding at the same time. This is the last thing they want to hear. This is the last thing they want to consider. They would like for the opposite to be true, that people are lying about their support for Trump \u2019cause they think it\u2019s the cool thing to do. <\/p>\n

They\u2019re actually hoping that most people who say they support Trump don\u2019t and that secretly there\u2019s a bunch of support for Jeb out there that will show up when actual voting takes place. And if not Jeb, then Rubio. <\/p>\n

Now, this next story\u2019s from the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. And this is something that — look, I don\u2019t watch much cable news. I don\u2019t mean that as a criticism, either. I\u2019m just passing on information to you more than anything. And I don\u2019t listen to much else either, and I never have, and that\u2019s for competitive reasons. So I don\u2019t know if other people have made this point, but I know that I have, and I haven\u2019t heard it anywhere else. And that is, the makeup of the Trump coalition. <\/p>\n

I\u2019ve mentioned it numerous times before. The Trump coalition happens to be made up of people that the Republican Party claims it wants to be. The Republican Party claims it doesn\u2019t like its base and wants to broaden the base to include blue-collar, Hispanic, independents, women, minorities, and that\u2019s who make up the Trump support base right now.<\/p>\n

“The unique base of support that has pushed Donald Trump to the top of the Republican presidential field in national polls is also likely to give him boost this spring when the campaign shifts to the South. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has drawn wide attention for his own efforts in Southern states, many of which will vote as part of the big, March 1 ‘SEC Primary,\u2019 when more convention delegates will be awarded than on any other day. Mr. Cruz, who is surging in the polls, is focusing on evangelical Christian voters and other social conservatives, which form the cornerstone of his support and are plentiful in those states.<\/line><\/p>\n

“But a breakdown of recent Wall Street Journal\/NBC News polling shows that Mr. Trump also has a likely base of support in those Southern states. And it comes with something of a surprise: Mr. Trump\u00c2\u2019s likely strength can be detected by looking at Republican primary voters who live in counties with large African American and Hispanic populations.<\/p>\n

“Trump does particularly well in counties that the American Communities Project calls Minority Centers. Data from the last three polls show Mr. Trump has the support of 34% of Republican primary voters who live in those communities.”<\/p>\n

Anyway, the point of all this is, the Wall Street Journal has done some investigation of its own deep polling data, and they have found that the Trump base of support is all over the place. The Drive-Bys will not admit a potential erosion in their base support. The Republicans won\u2019t admit that Trump has finally hit the holy grail they\u2019ve been seeking. But Trump is very strong in minority districts in the South. We just had a caller who made the point that 30 to 35% of the African-American people he works with support Trump, and the NBC poll internal data suggests that that\u2019s actual data, not anecdotal. <\/p>\n

Trump is also very strong with low income, lesser educated working people which used to be owned by the Democrats. The south is where the majority of delegates will be decided early in the Republican primaries, these SEC primaries. The point that I\u2019m making here is that Trump\u2019s support base is entirely unconventional. The Drive-Bys have their conception of it, the Republican Party has their conception of it, and they\u2019re all wrong, and neither of them, when they\u2019re faced with the reality, want to admit the coalition that Trump\u2019s been able to put together. It\u2019s all over the place. <\/p>\n

It is exactly — I\u2019m not exaggerating — It\u2019s exactly what the Republican Party claims or says or thinks it has to do to win the presidency. You\u2019ve heard \u2019em. They\u2019ve gotta support amnesty \u2019cause they gotta reach out to Hispanics. They gotta reach to women \u2019cause of the War on Women. They gotta reach out to blue-collar working people. Well, Trump is drawing significant support from all of those groups just by being who he is. The Republican Party is trying to get those groups by agreeing with Democrats on policy, from amnesty, to contraception, bordering on some of the other social issues and immigration, may be even a little bit of Obamacare when you get right down to it. And that\u2019s not working. <\/p>\n

Don\u2019t misunderstand. Trump has a significant number of conservatives in his base, but it\u2019s by no means the lion\u2019s share. The Republican Party thinks that Trump has come along and is getting the Republican base. They\u2019re not all that worried about it for that reason, \u2019cause they\u2019d like to be rid of it. But the interesting thing is that what the Republican Party claims — by the way, what the media and the Democrats say the Republican Party has to do to win the presidency, which I find laughable that they actually want to help. But what they say is, you Republicans, you can\u2019t win if all you\u2019re gonna get is your own voters. You\u2019re gonna have to reach out. You\u2019re gonna have to change who you are. You\u2019re gonna have to broaden your mind. You\u2019re gonna have to become less rigid. You\u2019re gonna have to become open and tolerant of a lot of left-wing type groups. Otherwise you don\u2019t have a prayer. Well, bingo. <\/p>\n

Trump is doing it, not by reaching out to anybody, just being himself. Trump does not have one plan, there\u2019s not one specific plan or policy of Trump\u2019s that\u2019s aimed at a group. Trump is just taking his message out there. “Here\u2019s who I am, we\u2019re gonna make America great again. We\u2019re gonna build a wall. It\u2019s gonna have a great door in it. The Mexicans are gonna pay for it. We\u2019re not gonna let any more terrorists into this country. We\u2019re not gonna negotiate any more stupid deals, and we\u2019re certainly not gonna make ourselves look like the problem in the world. We\u2019re gonna be the solution.” Yay! It doesn\u2019t matter where they come from, Americans are cheering it. <\/line><\/p>\n

The political parties think you gotta go after group by group by group. You gotta have a message for this group, gotta have a message for that group. I have always said, I have always believed that the way to go out and actually put together a winning coalition is just go out and speak to people as though they\u2019re Americans and to heck whether they\u2019re men, women, Hispanic, Asian, black, white, gay, straight, it doesn\u2019t matter, just go out and speak to Americans about their country. Now, granted there are a bunch of leftists out there who aren\u2019t gonna be interested, but they\u2019re still a minority, I don\u2019t care what anybody says. <\/p>\n

And it\u2019s for this reason, by the way, all these polls that show Trump loses in an election to Hillary, I\u2019m not sure you can say that yet. Everybody wants to believe it in both parties, interestingly. The Republicans want to believe it. The Democrats want to believe it. It\u2019s way too soon to say. You see polling data out right now, Ted Cruz has pulled even with Hillary in some of these national polls. Six weeks ago, who would have believed that? Ted Cruz? I mean, Republican Party, Democrats, I mean, Ted Cruz, no more despicable, reprobate human being. You remember the image that Cruz had with these people. <\/p>\n

Now all of a sudden he\u2019s in a tie with Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head race for the presidency. Meanwhile, the biggest news about Hillary is she couldn\u2019t get to the bathroom and back in one commercial break on CNN. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Here\u2019s Kent in Sugar Land, Texas, great to have you on the EIB Network. Hi. CALLER: Oh, Merry Christmas, Rush, to you and yours, and thanks for taking my call. RUSH: You bet, sir. Happy to have you here. CALLER: Thank you. 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