![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/APP-110220-Biden-Fade-Iowa.jpg\")
I have two different stories, two different analyses, if you will, of the Iowa poll. It\u2019s the Des Moines Register, and the woman that runs the poll is considered the epitome of fairness and so forth because she really does care about the sanctity of her newspaper\u2019s reputation, her poll reputation and all that, and it\u2019s not something that\u2019s used throughout the electoral season. It\u2019s a one-off, a one-time thing. The released poll on the Sunday before the election is the one that everybody just huffs and puffs and pants and waits for. So one piece I have here is by John Ellis and it runs on the website Medium<\/a>.<\/p>\n“Forty-one percent,” is how he begins the piece, 41%. He says, “I\u2019ve been covering American politics for a long time and I can\u2019t remember a number that so dramatically altered the political community\u2019s perception of a presidential campaign as that number did, last night, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time.” Now, he wrote this on November 1st, so this is a couple days old.<\/p>\n
“The source of the number was The Iowa Poll, which has been the gold standard for statewide polling in the United States for decades. The number itself was the percentage of likely voters in Iowa supporting Joe Biden\u2019s candidacy for president. President Trump\u2019s number was 48%, which put him ahead in the ‘horse race\u2019 by 7 percentage points. There was nothing really remarkable about that, in context. Mr. Trump won the state in 2016 by (roughly) nine percentage points.” See, that\u2019s not why it\u2019s unusual. Stick with me. It\u2019s not why it\u2019s noteworthy. Stick with me.<\/p>\n
“What was remarkable was Biden\u2019s 41%. What made it doubly disconcerting was the way The Des Moines Register (accurately) described the poll results: ‘Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded…\u2019<\/p>\n
“Faded! Could there be a more terrible word in the last week of a presidential campaign? Off the record, Democratic elected officials and campaign operatives and financial backers have been saying throughout the campaign that their biggest fear regarding the eventual outcome was Biden himself. They saw him as an especially weak candidate and worried that he wasn\u2019t ‘a closer;\u2019 even if he was ahead going into the last week, victory could slip from his grasp. Up until last night, Democratic elected officials and political operatives saw the presidential race standing at somewhere between a narrow Biden win and a ‘blue wave.'”<\/p>\n
In other words, the two options were gigantic Democrat landslide and narrow Biden win. Democrat political operatives last night did not see a Trump win at all, ever, anywhere. “In their ‘blue wave\u2019 scenario, the Democrats would win both the presidency and a Senate majority and the Trump-McConnell nightmare would finally come to an end.<\/p>\n
“For Democrats, last night\u2019s Iowa Poll was the worst possible news at the worst possible moment. It foretold close results in Wisconsin and Minnesota. It undermined the Biden campaign\u2019s momentum and morale. And it fracked Democrats\u2019 self- confidence. What had seemed reasonably certain no longer seemed certain at all.”<\/p>\n Biden, Theresa Greenfield, faded, faded. Now, stop and think for a minute. Up until this poll came out, the Democrats in Iowa and some of the other states had two scenarios: either a massive blue wave Democrat landslide or a narrow, narrow Biden win. But at no point and in no scenario did they factor a Trump win. Now all of that is out the window.<\/p>\n And there is another analysis on the Iowa poll from another website that focuses on how depressed and in denial Bill Kristol is over all of this.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: Now, I\u2019m not gonna get into the analysis right now \u2019cause I gotta get to the phones but here\u2019s the other analysis piece and it\u2019s PJ Media, Matt Margolis. “The Latest Poll Out of Iowa Foreshadows Disaster for Biden.”<\/a> Let me tell you what\u2019s gonna happen. They\u2019re gonna be focusing on Pennsylvania because of what Nate Silver said and because of the reality on the ground.<\/p>\n On that runway in the lower-right center is the president. You can barely see him in that shot. I don\u2019t… It\u2019s not an airplane runway. The runway, the walkway to the podium and the stage. That is just… That\u2019s farther than the eye can see, that crowd size. It\u2019s phenomenal. It\u2019s unprecedented in American politics.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: It\u2019s great to have you here. Telephone number: 800-282-2882. Here is the second analysis piece of the Iowa poll, which was published a couple of days ago. You know, I\u2019ll be honest with you.<\/p>\n I had forgotten how big a deal this is. When I saw these two pieces analyzing it, I had to dig deep into the memory synapses, little gray cells here. I had to go back to 2016 and say, “Okay, what did this poll say in 2016?” I had to reconstruct that, had to go look it up. It\u2019s a big deal to the left, because the poll has apparently unassailable integrity.<\/p>\n So I shared with you the first analysis from John Ellis that was published at Medium. This is published at PJ Media. It\u2019s Matt Margolis. “Yeah, yeah, yeah, polls shouldn\u2019t be trusted. But hear me out,” he begins. Oh, by the way, the headline: “The Latest Poll Out of Iowa Foreshadows Disaster for Biden.”<\/a><\/p>\n So that\u2019s two different analyses here that have the same conclusion.<\/p>\n Now, this guy, Matt Margolis, is focused on Bill Kristol because Bill Kristol is one of the leaders of the Never Trumpers. Bill Kristol is one of these phony, faux conservatives who\u2019s been trying to get you to part with your money to send to him to prop up his so-called conservative efforts like his magazines and cruises while telling you that he is the intellectual brainpower behind conservatism being dominant in America.<\/p>\n “Yeah, yeah, yeah, polls shouldn\u2019t be trusted. But hear me out. Never-Trumper Bill Kristol recalled the significance of the last Des Moines Register (DMR) poll in a Friday [October 31, 2020] tweet prior to the poll\u2019s release.” This is Kristol\u2019s tweet on Halloween prior to the release of the poll: “‘I remember well my phone conversation with a smart Republican friend (sadly, pro-Trump) Sat. eve, Nov. 5, 2016, after the final DMR poll of IA at Trump +7.<\/p>\n “‘He said, if IA is +7, then Trump has a good shot in PA\/WI\/MI, and could win the whole thing. I was worried. He was right.\u2019 Trump ultimately won Iowa in 2016 by 9.4 points. Not long after Kristol\u2019s tweet, the final Des Moines Register poll was released, and showed a massive shift to Trump in Iowa, putting him, again, at +7 over Biden.”<\/p>\n From the poll, from the story: “‘Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe [Bite Me] has faded,'” there\u2019s the word, “‘a new Des Moines Register\/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day. The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%.<\/p>\n “‘Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren\u2019t sure and 5% don\u2019t want to say… In September\u2019s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.'” Oh. So a month ago they were… September, rather. Two months ago, they were tied, and since then Trump 48, Bite Me 41. Yeah, 48-41. “J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll…”<\/p>\n By the way, her reputation… “J. Ann Selzer\u2019s reputation for polling in Iowa is solid, and Kristol seems unwilling to acknowledge that perhaps there\u2019s been a late-breaking shift in Trump\u2019s favor.” He is “resisting,” if you will. “‘In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women.'” By the way, I don\u2019t know how many of you are watching Trump rallies. Kathryn and I do not miss a moment of any of them.<\/p>\n I mean, we saw Trump dancing at Opa-locka at 1 a.m. today. We watch. They\u2019re the best television going. Trump rallies are the best TV going, and Trump has been focusing on this news supposedly that suburban women don\u2019t like him. He\u2019s been directly reaching out to them in these rallies. He goes on a riff about he loves women; he loves suburban women.<\/p>\n He wants the best for suburban women, and then he tells the story about how the Drive-By Media is now making fun of Trump because he\u2019s begging the women. He\u2019s begging and reaching out and pleading with them, and he laughs about it, and he says, “No, you suburban women, you\u2019re not gonna have it better with anybody but me.”<\/p>\n I love this! I love it. You know, you\u2019re not supposed to tackle this stuff head on. You\u2019re supposed to be subtle. But Trump is just letting it all out, folks. He\u2019s all-in, like we all need to be all-in for him, and how do we do that? We vote. That\u2019s when “all-in” on our side means. But, I mean, he\u2019s just taking it right to them.<\/p>\n And he\u2019s telling them that whatever he\u2019s heard about him is wrong, that he loves them, that he loves everybody, that he wants the best for everybody and for everything and for every aspect of this country. And he doesn\u2019t need any of this. He doesn\u2019t need to put up with the abuse. He doesn\u2019t need this.<\/p>\n He\u2019s got the empathy, he\u2019s got the affection, and he has the humility. And it\u2019s all on display at every one of these rallies. So returning here to this analysis of the Iowa poll, J. Ann Selzer. “In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trump\u2019s 21-point lead among men. But today, Biden\u2019s lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%. ‘We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September,\u2019 Selzer said. ‘And while there is still a big gap among men — they\u2019re going for Trump by a 24-point margin — it\u2019s just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there\u2019s just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.'”<\/p>\n Her point is that Trump\u2019s margin with men has increased while Biden\u2019s margin with women has decreased by a significant amount so that there is no way that Biden is keeping up.<\/p>\n Now, back to Matt Margolis. “If this shift has happened in Iowa, does Kristol really believe it hasn\u2019t also happened in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as well? He certainly would have argued that the DMR poll spelled doom for Trump in those states if it showed him behind. Kristol seems to be in denial that recent battleground state polls have been showing momentum for Trump. Republican Senator Joni Ernst also saw a boost in the DMR poll, with her now ahead of her challenger 46 to 42 percent,” which we also reported mere moments ago.<\/p>\n So Margolis is focused on Kristol, which is fine. There\u2019s a lot of pent-up anger and frustration at the Never Trumpers, and it\u2019s justified. The so-called Republicans out there now advocating for Biden, they ought to be, at the very least, ashamed of themselves. I mean, it\u2019s unconscionable what these people have done, and it\u2019s so selfish and self-focused. (interruption) What was that? (interruption) What was the Iowa poll, 26 — well, let me read the headline.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the headline from the Des Moines Register poll November 5th, 2016. Ready? Dadelut, dadelut, dadelut, dadelut, dadelut. “Iowa Poll: Trump Opens Seven-Point Lead Over Clinton.”<\/a> (gasping) Why, it\u2019s all playing out the way it did four years ago, except now it\u2019s seven, eight points that Trump is ahead. And Biden is fading.<\/p>\n In this scenario they\u2019ve got Trump at 279 electoral votes, Biden at 259. But the point is that CBS News has put together a graphic showing how Trump can win and keep winning, winning, winning. A week ago this would not have been possible. A week ago this would not have been created. A week ago CBS News would not have been talking about Trump winning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" RUSH: The Iowa poll is a Des Moines Register poll that traditionally comes out on the Sunday before Election Day. And it is gospel. It has become a gospel poll.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":371854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/APP-tearaway-john-ellis-110220.jpg\")
<\/a>“That was the other piece of bad news in last night\u2019s Iowa Poll release. It showed that Republican Sen. Joni Ernst had pulled ahead of her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. Her lead (46%-to-42%) was within the margin of error, but it wasn\u2019t Ms. Ernst\u2019s lead that Democrats were focused on. It was the ‘faded\u2019 support for Ms. Greenfield, which almost exactly tracked the ‘faded\u2019 support for Joe Biden.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/APP-110220-Trump-Rally-PA-7.jpg\")
If they don\u2019t win Pennsylvania, they win nothing, and they\u2019ve thought for 10 days that Pennsylvania was in the bag, and now they\u2019re having doubts about it. Not the least of which is because these monster crowds that Trump has drawn in Pennsylvania. Good grief, folks! Put that picture up again, Brian. This is from Butler, Pennsylvania. We got a high-res version of it.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/APP-PJ-Media-Tearaway-110220.jpg\")
<\/a>And then Donald Trump comes along and renders all these Never Trumpers irrelevant, and they still haven\u2019t come to grips with it. So there are a lot of people that want to focus on Kristol and David Brooks and all these other Never Trumpers and really take it to them, and I gather Matt Margolis is one of these guys. So he opens:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/APP-110220-Trump-Rally-PA-5.jpg\")
And he doesn\u2019t… By the way, he makes mention of the fact that he\u2019s doing five rallies a day, but he doesn\u2019t complain. He loves it! He absolutely loves these things. You can see it. He literally loves it. He loves being with the people who show up, and he lets them know how much he appreciates they\u2019re there.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/facethenation.png\")
<\/a>Even CBS News has prepared a graphic. “CBS News Battleground Tracker.”<\/a> This is YouGov. That\u2019s the polling unit. Republican surge scenario. This is a graphic that demonstrates how Trump could surge to victory. I didn\u2019t bother making a screenshot out of it for the Dittocam<\/a>. We\u2019ll put it at RushLimbaugh.com.<\/p>\n