{"id":310137,"date":"2019-05-28T16:02:00","date_gmt":"2019-05-28T20:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/?p=310137"},"modified":"2019-05-29T15:47:07","modified_gmt":"2019-05-29T19:47:07","slug":"three-election-models-predict-trump-win-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2019\/05\/28\/three-election-models-predict-trump-win-in-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Election Models Predict Trump Win in 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>RUSH: Here are these models <a href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/daily\/2019\/05\/28\/trump-breaks-the-norm-that-says-republicans-cant-fight-back\/\">I talked about earlier<\/a>. There\u2019s a piece in the New York Times over the weekend, Steve Rattner, who\u2019s a BFF of Arthur Sulzberger III, Little Pinch, whose kid now runs the paper. But Rattner was one of his buddies. You know, they go to dinner with the wives and play bridge and that stuff. And he had a piece, he was the car czar for Obama when Obama was thinking about buying the car industry and ended up buying General Motors. Rattner was the car czar.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-310146\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/APP-052819-PA-Sky-002.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/APP-052819-PA-Sky-002.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/APP-052819-PA-Sky-002-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s a financier, and he\u2019s good friends with Obama as well. And he had a piece in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/05\/27\/opinion\/trumps-formidable-2020-tailwind.html\">New York Times over the weekend called, &#8220;Trump\u2019s Formidable 2020 Tailwind.&#8221;<\/a> And it\u2019s a story about three expert computer scientists who put together models to predict presidential campaigns and races, just like climate change is only the result of computer models. You realize there\u2019s not a shred of evidence on so-called global warming? It\u2019s all computer models and what they\u2019re predicting 30 years from now. Really that\u2019s all it is.<\/p>\n<p>Well, there are people that model a lot of things &#8212; economics. Dick Armey and Phil &#8212; Phil &#8212; the senator from Texas &#8212; Phil Gramm &#8212; they are expert economists. They had great computer models that forecast economic activity based on variables of input, data input. These three guys do this for presidential campaigns.<\/p>\n<p>One is Ray Fair, who\u2019s a professor at Yale. The other, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, and Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics, all three of these people have modeled the 2020 election, and all three are predicting massive reelection for Donald Trump. Ray Fair, the Yale professor, \u201cfound that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors,\u201d for a long time, meaning the economy, \u201cbut he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s undeniable. Incumbency counts for an incalculable amount. You won once, you\u2019re in office, incumbency return rate is pretty high, even in the presidency. You add that to the economy, and this guy says Trump with ease.<\/p>\n<p>Mark Zandi has modeled 12 different methods or 12 different variances of the campaign, input all kinds of different data, and in all 12 of his models Trump wins reelection. And Donald Luskin, Trend Macrolytics, has reached the same conclusion. This doesn\u2019t mean anything. This is not polling data. It\u2019s actual computer modeling based on hard data. And of course it\u2019s garbage in, garbage out, value in, value out, depends on what they input. But they have a track record of great, great predictive success.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-244472\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TrumpWinning.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"585\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TrumpWinning.jpg 585w, https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TrumpWinning-300x138.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 585px) 100vw, 585px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And Ratner wrote his piece as a warning to Democrats, not as an advocate to Trump. But he\u2019s writing this as a warning, &#8220;Look. Do not make the mistake of thinking that everybody out there looks at Trump the way we in New York and on the East Coast do, because they don\u2019t.&#8221; And that\u2019s a tough thing. These people are arrogant and they\u2019re condescending and they\u2019re snarky, and they believe that anybody who counts thinks exactly as they do.<\/p>\n<p>They don\u2019t know anybody who doesn\u2019t vote the way they do. They don\u2019t know anybody who doesn\u2019t think the way they do. That\u2019s why when Trump wins, it\u2019s like a Martian winning. They don\u2019t know anybody that voted for him. They can\u2019t digest it. And that\u2019s why he\u2019s writing the piece. Do not think that Trump is defeated. Do not think that everybody sees him the way we do. And he cites these three models as evidence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RUSH: They have a track record of great, great predictive success.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":310146,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Three Election Models Predict Trump Win in 2020 - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/daily\/2019\/05\/28\/three-election-models-predict-trump-win-in-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Three Election Models Predict Trump Win in 2020 - 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