{"id":291065,"date":"2018-11-05T16:09:00","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T21:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/?p=291065"},"modified":"2018-11-06T16:53:13","modified_gmt":"2018-11-06T21:53:13","slug":"polls-dont-matter-votes-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2018\/11\/05\/polls-dont-matter-votes-do\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls Don\u2019t Matter, Votes Do"},"content":{"rendered":"

RUSH: I\u2019m watching Fox. Peter Doocy\u2019s doing a story on Florida governor Rick Scott and his campaign for Senate against the mummified Bill Nelson, who\u2019s been there 46 years, I think, or whatever it is. And it\u2019s interesting. Trump is saying (summarized), “You know, during the hurricane down there, I got a call from Rick Scott. He\u2019s the governor. But I never heard from the senator. I never heard from Bill Nelson. Vote for Scott.” But here\u2019s the news with Rick Scott, and it\u2019s from Fox News: “Rick Scott Takes Rare Lead in Last-Minute Florida Senate Poll, as Toss-ups Dominate the Map.<\/a>”<\/p>\n

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa! Toss-ups?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

“Why,” I say sarcastically, “I thought there was a blue wave that we were all gonna be swamped by and that we were gonna be drowned and unable to reach the surface tomorrow night. What is this ‘toss-ups\u2019?” But, more importantly here: “Florida Republican Senate candidate Rick Scott, who currently serves as the state\u2019s governor, has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released Saturday — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading, and a positive sign for Republicans as they seek to retain control of the Senate.”<\/p>\n

I need to remind you of a truism that I often annunciate: When we get this close to the election, starting about a week out, that\u2019s when you can start trusting the polls. That\u2019s when they have to be concerned about their reputations, those who still are. Not all of them are. Some of them are so partisan they\u2019ll worry about their reputation later. But most of them… All of these polls that we have faced and dealt with all this year have been designed to shape public opinion.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve been designed to create in your mind the expectation of a blue wave. It\u2019s been designed to make you think that the country has sobered up, the country has realized it\u2019s mistakes in voting for Trump and Republicans, and it\u2019s time now to get serious. That happens to be Obama\u2019s message and the others. So the polling showing a blue wave and Democrats winning here and there and everywhere is designed to make that you think it\u2019s essentially over, that the statistics on midterm elections are true.<\/p>\n

The party out of power wins big; this is no exception. Those polls could in no way… Let me qualify. Rarely can those polls be correct because the events that shape elections haven\u2019t even come close to happening yet. I mean, I get bored by listening to polling reports from July, June, January. I really resent that polling results have become news, and the fact that poll results are news, to me, are proof of the purpose of polls today, which is to shape public opinion, not reflect it.<\/p>\n

In every one of these preelection polls, the Republicans are gonna get swamped, right? Republicans don\u2019t have a prayer. “I mean, they might even lose the Senate in addition to losing every seat in the House!” The Democrats were gonna pick up 200 seats, said one poll, in a purposely mis-composed headline. Well, now we are a day out, and beginning about seven days ago, the polls start looking differently, don\u2019t they? Isn\u2019t it amazing? All the races seem to tighten up, and all the people who were promising slam dunks start hedging their bets.<\/p>\n

Because they were making it all up a month ago and two months ago. They were reporting their hopes. They were reporting their dreams. They were getting polls results that reflected their desires. Anybody who runs a poll can get any result they want. It all depends on the sample and how you ask the questions. But now they have to be concerned about their reputations. Now they have to be able to say (when elections are over) that they called it, that they were the closest, that they were the most accurate.<\/p>\n

So now these races have tightened up and toss-ups and “Eh, we don\u2019t know!” Even Nate Silver… I\u2019m getting ahead of myself here. Even Nate Silver is kind of gone poof and said, “You know, yeah, it was 86% last week Democrats win the House, but it could go either way.” He\u2019s essentially taken it down to 50-50, which means, “I don\u2019t know.” So back to the Rick Scott poll here. “Rick Scott has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released [over the weekend] — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

“The results, from St. Pete Polls, give Scott a lead of 49.1% percent to 47.5%, within the margin of error… Conversely, the same group of likely voters surveyed by St. Pete Polls preferred Democrat Andrew Gillum to Republican Ron DeSantis in the state\u2019s [governor\u2019s race 48-43] with 3.7% undecided.” Then it goes on to talk about how Kyrsten Sinema is leading McSally by three… No, no, no. They\u2019re tied statistically. The point is, has Rick Scott ever really been this far behind?<\/p>\n

Nobody knows. Now, it may not be bad that it\u2019s made to look like Scott is coming back and mounting a late challenge, but how does that…? Nobody really knows that because nobody\u2019s voted yet. I hate it tell you, but who\u2019s gonna win tomorrow has already been determined. We just don\u2019t know the result yet \u2019cause the voting hasn\u2019t happened. The people know how they\u2019re gonna vote. And even if they don\u2019t know how they\u2019re gonna vote, the people that are gonna vote are gonna vote, and it\u2019s gonna determine who wins. And nobody knows what that\u2019s gonna be.<\/p>\n

God knows — if he cares. But the idea that somebody can be mounting a late challenge? Based on what? So much of this is just smoke and mirrors made to look like a horse race, when it isn\u2019t. The election takes place in one day over the course… Well, with early voting it\u2019s longer than that, and that\u2019s another factor where some of this early polling can actually come in and be even more effective in terms of shaping public opinion.<\/p>\n

But the point is, Rick Scott has now pulled ahead, if he was ever behind. We don\u2019t know. But up until today, this past weekend, Rick Scott was dead! Rick Scott didn\u2019t have a prayer to win the Republican Senate seat in Florida. Bill Nelson was a slam dunk until this past weekend. My only point is, nobody really that. So the bottom line is: Don\u2019t believe or trust anything that you see or hear experts tell you, because nobody knows — and votes do matter.<\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: So just got this. Right here from the New York Post: “New Poll Gives Dem[ocrat]s Smallest Lead Yet Before Midterms.<\/a>” (Gasp!) “A new poll released on the eve of the midterm elections shows Democrats with their smallest lead so far in generic congressional races. Forty-three percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared to the 40 percent who would opt for the Republican candidate, a Politico\/Morning Consult poll out Monday shows.”<\/p>\n

Now, why is anybody taking a generic ballot poll today? Why the…? The generic ballot poll in December, January, February makes some sense. I mean, I think the poll then is irrelevant anyway, but there are names on the ballots now! Now, I know there are a lot of people like in Rio Linda who don\u2019t know who their congressman is, and some may not know who their senators are. I get all that. But what is the point of a generic ballot?<\/p>\n

\"\"It\u2019s because it may be the only place they can show the Democrats with a lead! It\u2019s three points, and 18% are undecided on this thing. “Eighteen percent were undecided in the survey taken between October 30 and November 2. Other polls taken in roughly the same time frame show Democrats with a more significant edge going into Tuesday\u2019s elections. An ABC\/Washington Post survey of registered voters conducted between October 29 and November 1 has Democrats with a nine-point lead. An NBC\/Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters surveyed between November 1 and 3 found Democrats ahead by six points.”<\/p>\n

Democrats had an eight-point lead in last month\u2019s Politico poll, and their poll now is down to three points. Okay. Three generic ballot poll the weekend before the midterms. I don\u2019t know. Maybe it\u2019s standard operating procedure. Seems rather odd to me. But let\u2019s start here with the big news on all of this. Well, one story first. This is from the Democrats\u2019 campaign arm, the Associated Press. The headline: “Trump Stumps in Cities That Don\u2019t Look that Much Like U.S.<\/a>”<\/p>\n

Now, what the hell is that? This is two days old. So this story is from Saturday. “President Donald Trump is in the final stretch of a 44-city blitz for the midterm elections, but the America he\u2019s glimpsed from the airport arrivals and his armored limousine is hardly a reflection of the nation as a whole.” Forty-four cities that Trump visiting do not represent America! Forty-four! “The president has mostly traveled to counties that are whiter, less educated and have lower incomes than the rest of the United States, according to Census Bureau data.<\/p>\n

“It\u2019s a sign that he is seeking to galvanize the same group of voters that helped carry him to victory in 2016.” Let me translate. Trump is only visiting Deliverance movie sets because all of you people that voted for Trump are a bunch of white, racist, stupid-ass pigs, and that doesn\u2019t look like America anymore. The Democrats are saying, \u201cWe\u2019re getting rid of you poor people. We\u2019re getting rid of you poor white people, and we\u2019re replacing you with people like on the caravan. It\u2019s gonna take a while, but that\u2019s our objective. And we\u2019re gonna wipe you out of political relevancy.<\/p>\n

And Trump is desperate to hang on because only stupid people fall for Donald Trump. Only stupid people buy into Donald Trump\u2019s agenda.\u201d What a racist headline! So “white” cities are not America anymore. Somebody wrote this, somebody at the AP thinks this, some editor, some writer, somebody thinks this. Trump is stumping in 44 cities that don\u2019t look much like the United States. Pure racism. A pure racist headline. You want to hear some of the cities that they mentioned here?<\/p>\n

\"\"Tampa, Nashville, Cleveland, Houston.<\/p>\n

Cleveland, Tampa, Nashville, Houston? Filled with nothing but white poor people? Putting aside the mendacity of these claims, why doesn\u2019t the AP ever wonder why Democrats don\u2019t reach out to whites? Huh? Why is it that the Democrat Party is trying to get rid of white voters? The Obama made the decision the November of 2011 to get rid of the white working class voter segment. Big story by Thomas B. Edsall in the New York Times where they acknowledged going forward that the Obama campaign the Democrat Party was gonna try to come together as a massive coalition of minority groups.<\/p>\n

And they were going to toss aside the traditional blue-collar white working-class voters, men and women, because they thought they were headed to being minorities. And the Democrats didn\u2019t want to hang on to a fading, failing demographic. And so now… You think I\u2019m making it up when I tell you that the left here is out to transform America away from the way it was founded, that they believe the sin of this country is solely poised by white people.<\/p>\n

All the sins of this country can be found in white America from the days of our founding, and that\u2019s what they are hell-bent on transforming. Do not doubt me on this. And, meanwhile, they call us the racists and the discriminators and so forth. This is just… I don\u2019t know. I run out of descriptions for this kind of thing. “Trump…” Back to the AP.<\/p>\n

Trump has largely eschewed the big metropolises for smaller cities. He has been to Tampa, Nashville, Cleveland and Houston \u2014 where the arenas could accommodate his crowds. But he\u2019s primarily been jet-setting to smaller places such as Elko, Nevada…. Or, Mosinee, Wisconsin … Or, Belgrade, Montana,” i.e., flyover country, the boonies. Never mind the fact that Trump is trying to campaign for Republican senate candidates in these places whose votes are just as powerful as any other senators no matter what hayseed place they come from.<\/p>\n

(impression) \u2018What does Trump think he\u2019s doing campaigning in such backwater places? Why couldn\u2019t he go to sophisticated places like Chicago, or Obama\u2019s proper? How many get shot every weekend and nobody cares? By the way, people of color are the ones getting shot and nobody cares.\u201d “Here is a portrait of the America that the president is seeing…” I\u2019m reading from the AP story: “Lower incomes — Trump has journeyed to counties where it\u2019s slightly more of a struggle to reach and stay in the middle class.”<\/p>\n

\"\"He\u2019s traveling to places where people have “fewer college degrees.” That makes them smarter, if you ask me. “Of the 43 places Trump is visiting, 28 have a below-average share of college graduates.” It\u2019s outrageous that Trump is campaigning for those people! It is outrageous that Trump cares about poor people and cares about the people that may not be as well educated, as sophisticated liberals. It\u2019s outrageous! Wait. I thought that\u2019s who liberals cared about. I thought it was the liberals who cared about the downtrodden, the ill-educated, the poor, stupid, thirsty, hungry.<\/p>\n

I thought the liberals owned that. They\u2019re mad at Trump for going and telling those people it\u2019s their country, too? They\u2019re mad at Trump for going there and telling those people they can “Make America Great Again”? We\u2019re talking about the people who make America work, and these people are just livid. So Trump\u2019s going to 44 cities, according to the AP, that do not look like America. That headline may as well be written by the Democrat National Committee.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no difference between the Associated Press and the Democrat Party or the American left or any of the television networks, and this is who they are. They insult you. (impression) \u201cYou are the people that were so stupid, you didn\u2019t realize the opportunity we had to elect Hillary Clinton as president. You\u2019re so stupid, you\u2019re so selfish, and that\u2019s why we hate you.\u201d And make no mistake. For all of this talk from the media and the left and how they hate Trump, it\u2019s really you, folks, that voted for him.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s really you that they hate. And it\u2019s you they haven\u2019t given a rat\u2019s rear end about learning who you are. It\u2019s you. They haven\u2019t ventured out to where you live to find out why you\u2019re voting the way you are so that they might try to change your mind and persuade you. No, they are writing you off because you\u2019re uneducated, you\u2019re poor, you\u2019re barely in the middle class. Yuk! Who do we want to do with you? But yet that\u2019s who the Democrat Party was always said to be looking out for, isn\u2019t it? Literally, literally… You want to talk about offensive and enraging?<\/p>\n

Okay. I just had to share that with you because that goes hand in hand with these people revising the generic ballot down. You remember, ladies and gentlemen… (interruption) Have audio sound bite No. 11 standing by. Do you remember last week — it might now be the week before last — on the Drudge Report there was a gigantic headline: “Nate Silver gives Democrats 86% chance of winning the House, Republicans 14% chance of keeping the House”?<\/p>\n

Eight-six percent! Nate Silver. Do you know that Nate Silver has never conducted a poll in his life? I don\u2019t mean… I\u2019m not being critical. I\u2019m telling you who he is. Nate Silver does not run a polling unit and never has. Nate Silver… And I forget. I think it was the 2014 election or the 2012 election. One of the recent elections, Nate Silver happened to call every state correct in terms of who was gonna win it, and I don\u2019t know if it was a presidential race or a… I think it was. He\u2019s living off that one election where he got everything right.<\/p>\n

He hasn\u2019t come close since then. He does not run a polling unit. He was working for… Was it Politico when that happened? And then he went to the New York Times, and that didn\u2019t work out, then he went to ESPN, and that didn\u2019t work out, then he started the FiveThirtyEight website, wherever that is. He\u2019s been traveling around. But I think he\u2019s never has conducted a poll. He just takes existing polling data and his reputation is that there\u2019s nobody but nobody who can dig into all that data and translate it for people as to what it actually mean\u2019s.<\/p>\n

\"\"And he did it in that one election. So that\u2019s why he\u2019s now considered a guru. And when liberals panic near elections, which they are right now, it\u2019s Nate Silver they consult. Well, I hate to tell you, but yesterday TheHill.com headline: “Nate Silver Says Dem[ocrat]s Could retake House, or Not,” they could take it or they could lose it, “‘Both Extremely Possible.\u2019<\/a>” Wait a minute. What happened to 86% chance the Democrats win it? He said: Well, “no one should be surprised if [the Democrats] only win 19 seats…”<\/p>\n

They need 23. He said, “[N]o one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.” What? Whoa, whoa, whoa! I thought based on you how accurate polls out…? I thought that was Nate Silver\u2019s extraordinary expertise to tell us which polls were right and wrong.<\/p>\n

Nobody knows anything and Nate Silver here is admitting it. Poof. Bye-bye, 86%. Bye-bye. Nate Silver doesn\u2019t want to stand by it. They all remember what happened to \u2019em in 2016 where they had 92% chance Hillary wins at 6 p.m. on Election Day. All these polls a month ago, two months ago, are garbage in, garbage out. Here is Nate Silver on This Week yesterday with George Stephanopoulos, who said, “Okay. You\u2019re up 85% for the Democrats taking the House. So break down statistically, Nate, what that means.”<\/p>\n

SILVER: The range of outcomes in the House is really wide. Our range, which covers 80% of outcomes, goes from on the low end about 15 Democratic pickups all the way up to the low to mid-fifties, 52 or 53. Most of those are above 23, which is how many seats they would need to take the House, but like — but no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”<\/p>\n