{"id":289760,"date":"2018-10-24T16:12:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-24T20:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/?p=289760"},"modified":"2018-10-25T16:13:18","modified_gmt":"2018-10-25T20:13:18","slug":"the-blue-wave-was-a-lie-but-it-could-be-even-worse-for-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2018\/10\/24\/the-blue-wave-was-a-lie-but-it-could-be-even-worse-for-democrats\/","title":{"rendered":"The Blue Wave Was a Lie, But It Could Be Even Worse for Democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Okay. Let\u2019s get some of the election analysis. The midterms are 13 days away, two weeks ago from yesterday. Tom Bevan co-founded Real Clear Politics, and it\u2019s a website that many political scientists, political operatives, political experts cite constantly. What Real Clear Politics does, among many other things, is average all of the so-called responsible polls out there into something called a Real Clear Politics average of polls<\/a>. And political experts from across the aisle cite Real Clear Politics and trust it as an unassailable source.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So Tom Bevan, co-founder of this place, was on Fox Business Network today. He said that, if there was a blue wave, that it would be cresting at this point in time, meaning it\u2019d be building, we\u2019d be seeing the top of it here. And Tom Bevan said in all the polling data that they have in Real Clear Politics and are analyzing, it\u2019s not. There is no cresting. There is no blue wave. If a wave was coming, it would be building, he says, and it isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

But, on the other hand, the generic ballot is holding. Meaning the Democrats are not running away with it. They still have a… Depending on three- to five-point lead in the generic ballot, but they\u2019re not expanding it. There\u2019s no growth. There are no Democrats pulling away, as would happen with a blue wave. Trump\u2019s job approval is rising. Democrats are in the advantage, Bevan says, but they\u2019re not building on anything.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no wave that\u2019s gonna wash everything away and leave only Democrats standing. He says the House races are really tight. They are race-by-race real battles. \u201cHand-to-hand combat\u201d is how he described it. He forecasts that Democrats might win the House, that they do have an advantage right now because they have a range of 70 competitive races. And the range of pickup as they look at polling data now is anywhere from Democrats picking up 10 to 41 seats.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re projecting a Democrat pickup of 25-1\/2 seats, which gives \u2019em a slight advantage. Democrats need to pick up 23. That\u2019s the magic number. Anything above that, Democrats have an advantage in the House. The range of the pickup, according to the polling data, Real Clear Politics takes a look at anywhere from 10 to 41 seats, they project a pickup of 25 seats, 25 and a half; so two and a half seats more than they need.<\/p>\n

But with even a tiny shift in just a couple of races, the GOP can hold the House. So all of this synthesized and stripped away to its bear essence, there isn\u2019t a blue wave, there isn\u2019t this blue wave that\u2019s going to sweep every Republican away and leave only Democrats standing. The generic ballot is not moving in Democrats\u2019 favor. Trump\u2019s approval numbers are rising. Over on the Senate side, Bevan and Real Clear Politics project the Republicans are gonna gain two seats. Two weeks ago, they were predicting no change.<\/p>\n

The Republicans wouldn\u2019t gain or lose any. Two weeks before that the Democrats were going to pick up seats in the Senate. So in the past month, we\u2019ve gone from Democrats picking up a couple to Republicans gaining a couple. And that\u2019s the momentum and that\u2019s the trend. And he made the point that it\u2019s a whole new world with Trump. Gender gap, education gap, the rural-urban gap, all of these things don\u2019t mean nearly as much as they have in the past because of Trump neutralizing much of it.<\/p>\n

And Trump is the great unknown as these rallies continue. Now, another retired historian and political analyst sent an email that I received (let\u2019s see) just this morning. I\u2019m not gonna identify who is is. Doesn\u2019t matter. I don\u2019t know you\u2019ve heard of them. But I just want to share with you some of the things I get. Some of it is, by the way, legitimate. Some of it is obviously to try to influence me into promoting whatever it is that\u2019s sent. I have to be very, very careful about this. I\u2019m just… I\u2019m gonna relay this to you dispassionately.<\/p>\n

This guy, who is an historian, who has studied American politics and congressional races along the lines of Michael Barone, just not as well known. As he looks at things, he sees an absolute red wave, and he did not believe this until last night. He\u2019s been seeing trends the past two weeks, but he has been reluctant to convert any of these trends into an actual prediction until now. He says the numbers he\u2019s looking at from Nevada are exceptional. In Minnesota, Keith Ellison is cratering the whole Democrat Party.<\/p>\n

Now Amy Klobuchar is in a seven-point race. She was not too long ago in a landslide victory situation that was so secured that she wasn\u2019t even gonna have to spend any money. Now her lead is down to seven. [Karin] Housley is only down three in the governor race, two points, and Ellison, Keith Ellison, who is cratering, looks like he\u2019s gonna lose by more than seven points. This guy says he\u2019s getting reports from on the ground in Minneapolis and throughout the state that red areas are turning out in droves.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Once again, Republican early voting is through the roof, and nobody predicted this. The Democrats\u2019 own early voting and the Republicans so far own it. And all over the country it looks like. And this is a stunner. This is something people have not seen and nobody predicted this! In Nevada, Dean Heller is now on track to win by 35,000 votes. California, 39. California, 49. California 49 absentees.<\/p>\n

All three seats would be safe. Antonio Sabato is up two points in his district. So California\u2019s even got places, pockets where Republicans are looking good. Arizona, Republicans up over Democrats 12.4%. That\u2019s up 3.9% over 2016. The Arizona 1, a Democrat seat is now close. All of these thought to be Democrat locks just a month ago are now toss-ups. And this guy says to me, \u201cI think we\u2019re a in a position here to actually gain a couple of House seats, maybe seven to nine Senate seats at this rate if these kinds of trends — and it\u2019s all based on polling data — continues.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, you might be asking, “Rush, who is this guy? We\u2019re not hearing this anywhere.” I know you\u2019re not hearing it anywhere. That\u2019s the point. It doesn\u2019t matter who it is. The fact that I\u2019m relaying it to you is all you need to know, that I\u2019m taking it somewhat seriously at least to the point that it\u2019s interesting. I\u2019m not endorsing any of this, folks. I don\u2019t… I\u2019m not familiar enough with the data myself. I just have instincts, and I process information like everybody else, and I\u2019m just telling you.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know how things are gonna end up, but I do know that none of this is the way the Democrats and the media thought this was gonna play out. There isn\u2019t any blue wave, and even they are beginning to pull back from that now. Even they are beginning to admit that there isn\u2019t one and that there could be big trouble. NBC\/Wall Street Journal poll, Politico, these kinds of places are pulling back from it. I don\u2019t think there ever was gonna be a blue wave.<\/p>\n

This is my point. I think we\u2019ve been lied to. We\u2019ve had a media soap opera narrative that has been part of the effort to defeat Trump and Republicans for the last year starting with the generic ballot last December. So it… But regardless, however the Democrats are telling the story themselves, however they\u2019re lying or whatever, it isn\u2019t unfolding as they expected. They expected to be able to make a blue wave happen just by predicting it, just by talking about it, just by reporting stories made to look like it was happening.<\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Here\u2019s in other story, this from Bloomberg news: “Polls Could Be Missing a GOP Surge. Here\u2019s Why.<\/a> — It certainly looks like Democrats will do well in the midterms. But this cycle presents some unusual risks for pollsters.” Now, the mainstream media does this every election cycle. Where was all this doubt for the last six months? The last six months there was gonna be a blue wave; there was no doubt about it. It was gonna sweep the Democrats to massive control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and it was, \u201cBye-bye, Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s been the soap opera script for at least nine months. The Drive-Bys were assuring everybody every day, \u201cDemocrats are gonna crush it! It\u2019s gonna be curtains, curtains for the Republicans. Now, \u201cPolls Could Be Missing a GOP Surge,\u201d \u201ca late surge,\u201d and guess what they\u2019re saying? \u201cThat\u2019s what happened in 2016: Hillary Clinton\u2019s lead over Donald Trump fell sharply in the last two weeks of the campaign. Although the polls picked this up, or at least most of it, it\u2019s a good reminder that even mid-October surveys can miss late change.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This story was written before the bombs.<\/p>\n

\u201cCould it happen again? It probably won\u2019t,\u201d don\u2019t worry about it, Bloomberg says.<\/p>\n

But it could, it could, it could! It could go either direction. Democrats could still win big or they could lose big. It could go either way!<\/p>\n

What is all this indecision all of a sudden? Versus all of this ontological certitude of just a month ago? \u201cPolls Could Be Missing GOP Surge.\u201d I don\u2019t know. I don\u2019t doubt that it\u2019s true. I\u2019m just saying the media does this every election cycle. They lie and my report for nine months, six months, five months, you name it. Then when the polls have to be shown to be correct so they still have their reputations, all of a sudden, \u201cIt could be really, really close — much closer than we ever, ever knew!\u201d It\u2019s a cycle, and you can predict it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: I don't know how things are gonna end up, but I do know that none of this is the way the Democrats and the media thought this was gonna play out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":274312,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Blue Wave Was a Lie, But It Could Be Even Worse for Democrats - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/daily\/2018\/10\/24\/the-blue-wave-was-a-lie-but-it-could-be-even-worse-for-democrats\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Blue Wave Was a Lie, But It Could Be Even Worse for Democrats - 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