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<\/p>\nRUSH: I think, folks, the National Hurricane Center just released the new track for Hurricane Florence. Normally the tracks are every six hours, the revised tracks. So Eastern Time, 11 a.m., 5 p.m., but there\u2019s also, when you get closer, intermediary data updates every three hours. So we just had one at 2 o\u2019clock. It looks like a new track. I\u2019ve never seen that. I\u2019ve never seen a new track issued at the three-hour interval.<\/p>\n
I just had a chance to glance at it here before the hour began, it looks like landfall, according to the latest track, is right at the South Carolina-North Carolina border. And it also looks like that if you\u2019re in the Raleigh-Durham area, you\u2019re now out of the cone. It doesn\u2019t mean you\u2019re not gonna get effects, but you\u2019re not in the 30-inches-of-rain area if you\u2019re at Raleigh-Durham. And of course we\u2019re still two days out. This is Wednesday, and the action is Friday. This cone is gonna keep changing.<\/p>\n
You know, I want to go back to what I said in the opening hour of today\u2019s broadcast and yesterday\u2019s too. I have lived through I don\u2019t know how many hurricanes now, since we moved to Florida in 1997. I have become a consumer expert. I\u2019m an expert consuming and analyzing meteorological data and on-the-ground effects of these storms.<\/p>\n
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Prior to moving to Florida I couldn\u2019t have cared less. I\u2019m sure to most of you this is of passing interest, so I appreciate your indulgence because people that are in the line of fire here, this is all they care about, it\u2019s all that\u2019s on their mind and how to deal with it and are they gonna be in the primary blunt force of this.<\/p>\n
The experience that I\u2019ve had with these is that when the forecasts first designate a landfall, and depending on the storm it could be four days out or five days out, and model forecasts give you greater forecast distance than that. But the Hurricane Center forecast, the official cone, four or five days out that cone\u2019s gonna change.<\/p>\n
I have yet to see — there may be one exception now, \u2019cause I\u2019ve made this point so many times, there may be one exception, and I can\u2019t remember which it is. But let\u2019s say where we live here in Palm Beach, let\u2019s say Palm Beach four or five days out is shown as the target. I can almost guarantee you we will not be where it hits.<\/p>\n
And this is not a criticism. It\u2019s simply that there are so many complexities involved in these storms that affect them, the steering mechanisms in the atmosphere and the ocean temperatures, the eyewall rebuilding cycles. You know, eyewalls destroy, get rebuilt during hurricanes, some of them. And they weaken for brief moments when the eyewall is being rebuilt, but they can come back even stronger after that. The eye can be even bigger. It\u2019s happened in this case a couple of times.<\/p>\n
But my experience is that forecasts four or five days out, they\u2019re close within 250 to 400 miles, but the actual landfall four days out never holds. And again, I don\u2019t want anybody taking this out of context. This is not a criticism. It\u2019s just that\u2019s why they don\u2019t specify in their actual text forecasts, they never mention cities until you\u2019re hours away when it\u2019s pretty certain where it\u2019s gonna hit.<\/p>\n
The only reason I\u2019m making this point is that whatever the track says today at 2 o\u2019clock Wednesday afternoon, it\u2019s gonna change again. It may not change much. But this is not the last one, just like the track forecast on Monday is now out the window. It\u2019s entirely different today than it was two days ago. It\u2019s just the nature of these things. And that\u2019s gonna be the case going forward.<\/p>\n
As we get closer, then the variance is going to shrink. As we get closer, as the hurricane gets closer to land, we\u2019re gonna have a much greater idea specifically where it\u2019s gonna hit. So it\u2019s not gonna change dramatically unless the Atlantic high would move out, for example, and there\u2019s model forecast that says that\u2019s gonna happen. If the Atlantic high moves, well, that totally changes the steering mechanism of the hurricane. If that happened, if the Atlantic high moved out, this thing would start making a due north turn and Northeast faster than you could shake a stick at it.<\/p>\n
But with the Atlantic high out there blocking it, that\u2019s why it\u2019s meandering along the way it is. So keep an eye on it because if you think you\u2019re out of the way now and you\u2019re our south, you\u2019re probably not. If you\u2019re out of the way now and you\u2019re north of the cone, you\u2019re probably safe to conclude that the worst part of it is gonna miss you.<\/p>\n
But just yesterday, just to give you an illustration, just yesterday in Raleigh-Durham everybody thought that this thing was gonna hit Wrightsville Beach and make a beeline for Raleigh-Durham and just wreck everything there, 30 inches of rain. You couldn\u2019t find gasoline. You couldn\u2019t find water. The Walmart stores were all closed. You couldn\u2019t find anything in Raleigh and areas nearby. And now, today, Raleigh is out of the cone, out of the primary cone of considering where the eye and the immediate surroundings will hit.<\/p>\n
When I say out of the cone that means we don\u2019t have to worry about the eye, if they\u2019re right. It doesn\u2019t mean you get no effects. But the amount of rainfall Raleigh is gonna get according to forecasts today, for example, is significantly less than what just yesterday they thought. So you have to keep a sharp eye on these things because they are changing constantly.<\/p>\n
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This track that it took late yesterday was never, not a single model had this move until yesterday, late yesterday. And it was the ECMWF, which is one of the euro models. Every model was bunched together, they were all consistent, all saying the same thing. And then this thing, when it ran late yesterday afternoon it\u2019s the only one that ventured and showed the thing moving south. And the Hurricane Center now thinks it\u2019s right so everybody\u2019s moved their track south to follow that one model. That\u2019s what\u2019s going on here.<\/p>\n
And if that model changes we don\u2019t know if they\u2019ll continue to follow it or not because they make their own forecasts independent of these things. They do it on their own after collecting, analyzing all of this data. But you can generally, with every storm, if you are a hurricane veteran like I am, you can pick out the model that they trust, and it\u2019s different with every storm too. There is not one model that you can make book on every storm, follow that baby and you\u2019ll know where it\u2019s going. That doesn\u2019t even exist. Even for us consumers it\u2019s a sigh.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why I listen to these brain-dead so-called experts that CNN finds talking about this. They had one on last night who runs some environmental nonprofit claiming that the reason this hurricane\u2019s track is what it is is because America has so warmed the planet that the tropics have gotten so hot and pushed so far north that they\u2019re moving the jet stream north.<\/p>\n
Nothing could be further from the truth! And yet there it was on CNN as gospel. And, meanwhile, CNN\u2019s ripping into people who do know what they\u2019re talking about, lying about what they\u2019re saying and so forth and so on. But, anyway, even FEMA, the latest from FEMA is this storm packs a Mike Tyson punch. Mike Tyson punch. And it may hit as a Category 3, not a 4, not a 5. It\u2019s gonna be a Category 4 close to shore. But according to this 2 p.m. track, it\u2019s a 3 when it actually makes landfall.<\/p>\n
Well, if it\u2019s a 3, that means there\u2019s a whole bunch of storms a lot more powerful than this, and yet this one\u2019s being reported as the worst, the biggest, the most devastating ever. And it\u2019s because of Trump being responsible for it.<\/p>\n
BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n
RUSH: Okay, a couple more things on the hurricane. There was just a rerun of the ECMWF model (the euro model) that the hurricane center has chosen to follow, and it moved just slightly back north. Not significantly for the hurricane center to move the track yet. But the euro model they\u2019ve been following, the one that moves south has moved. They just ran it, recent run, and it moved just a little bit north. Now, you can go nuts like we do in Hurricane Alley following this stuff. But it becomes fun for those of us who are in the line of fire of these things.<\/p>\n
You know that every forecast is not the last one. But the euro… It\u2019s not enough of a move north to cause any panic, but it is interesting that it stopped moving south. Now, in combination with that, I just got a note from a trusted meteorological expert friend of mine complete with charts, graphs, various colors showing where the jet stream is. (That\u2019s in red on this particular chart.) What it shows is that it is pure weather events that are determining this hurricane, its strength, its size, and its direction. It\u2019s nothing but weather events.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s no climate-related impact on this hurricane, and it can be demonstrated in all of the meteorological data they can amass to study this thing. It\u2019s important to point out. There\u2019s nothing, no climate change. There\u2019s no “tropics moving north because of warming” that\u2019s causing anything. It\u2019s literally… There are meteorological reasons why the jet stream is where it is, is the point, and one of the reasons it is where it is is the Atlantic high out there which is blocking everything. So that\u2019s the latest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RUSH: As the hurricane gets closer to land, we're gonna have a much greater idea specifically where it's gonna hit. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":284338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[12,1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n