{"id":214848,"date":"2016-11-04T16:22:26","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T20:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/172.24.32.11\/daily\/2016\/11\/04\/this_election_defies_traditional_analysis\/"},"modified":"2016-11-04T16:22:26","modified_gmt":"2016-11-04T20:22:26","slug":"this_election_defies_traditional_analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/11\/04\/this_election_defies_traditional_analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"This Election Defies Traditional Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a> <\/p>\n

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RUSH: Folks, as I look at things, as I\u2019ve said all week, I don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen and I don\u2019t think anybody else does either.  There\u2019s any number of ways to analyze the data that we have.  We have polling data.  We have the places that all the different candidates are going in these remaining four days.  We have the people that are accompanying them. <\/p>\n

For example, Hillary and Obama and spouses — hey, I have a question, speaking of that.  If Hillary wins and Bill moves to the White House with her, will they have to inform the neighborhood that a sexual offender has moved into the White House?  Isn\u2019t that something that happens?  I\u2019m just asking because I don\u2019t really have the answer to the question. <\/p>\nAnyway, they\u2019re going to be in Philadelphia tonight.  Philadelphia is Pennsylvania.  What are they doing in Pennsylvania?  Pennsylvania should be sewn up.  The Republicans, Trump should have no prayer in Pennsylvania, yet they\u2019re all going to be in Philadelphia.  But it\u2019s not just that.  There\u2019s going to be a giant concert, Stevie the boy Wonder is going to be playing along with Beyonc� and Jay Z.  <\/line>Anything to mask the fact that it\u2019s a Hillary Clinton rally.  They\u2019ve got to do something to get a crowd out. <\/line>\n

I think it\u2019s a tantamount admission Hillary can\u2019t draw a crowd on her own.  Look at what it\u2019s going to take to get this crowd.  It\u2019s going to take Barack Hussein Obama and the lovely Michelle My Belle Obama.  It\u2019s going to take Der Schlick Meister, Slick Willie himself, Stevie Wonder, Beyonc� and Jay Z. <\/p>\n

And there\u2019s a story in the stack warning everybody just because people show up and cheer Beyonc� and Jay Z does not mean they\u2019re cheering and supporting Hillary.  But that doesn\u2019t matter.  They want the photo-op.  But it\u2019s these kinds of things that are admittedly called anecdotal that you look at and you try to assign meaning to, and you just can\u2019t. <\/p>\n

There are too many unknowns and Trump is too big an outsider.  I\u2019ve maintained this from the beginning, you cannot analyze this campaign as you would a traditional campaign with two political professionals in it because one of the candidates is not a political professional and doesn\u2019t have the appeal that a political professional appeals.  Trump\u2019s appeal is entirely different from that of a political professional, and therefore I think it\u2019s hard to track.  It\u2019s hard to gauge.  It\u2019s hard to measure.  They\u2019re doing their best in the Drive-By and mainstream media to do all that, analyze it and make sense of it, but I don\u2019t think they can. <\/p>\n

One of the candidates literally has nothing to do with anything that\u2019s going on in the country in terms of government or politics.  There\u2019s not a Donald Trump fingerprint on anything.  So Hillary hasn\u2019t been able to run around and blame Trump for what\u2019s going on.  That\u2019s all on her.  That\u2019s all on Obama.  You know, she doesn\u2019t even bring up Obamacare.  She can\u2019t talk about Obamacare.  The signature achievement for Barack Hussein O, she can\u2019t talk about it because it\u2019s a disaster. <\/p>\n

The premiums are skyrocketing and it\u2019s really going to hit after the election as we get into next year. Twenty-five to 116 percent increases in premiums for a product the federal government has mandated that every citizen must buy or pay a fine.  So I think it\u2019s increasingly difficult to get your arms around this campaign because there\u2019s no way that you can use traditional techniques to analyze it.  Yet, that\u2019s all anybody\u2019s doing. <\/p>\n

The only analysis that we have out there is the traditional analysis you would get as though both candidates have years and years of experience in Washington, have a political resume, political track record.  Trump doesn\u2019t.  But the reason that matters to me, and I think that it might be a factor is the reason for his support is entirely different than any other Republican would be supported.  It\u2019s entirely different than the reason that Hillary is supported.  Trump is attracting people for entirely different reasons, and maybe an entirely different group of people to vote. <\/p>\n

So it\u2019s hard to forecast.  I think it\u2019s hard to analyze traditional polling data and make sense of it.  Now, the polls are tightening, yes, I was the one who predicted it. The New York Times has it Hillary plus three.  Folks, that\u2019s dead heat.  That\u2019s margin of error.  <\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Breaking news from CNN.  This just came down the wire eight minutes ago, folks.  I received this in the latest commercial break.  CNN has made four moves on its map tracking the Electoral College.  CNN has their own polling unit.  They\u2019re out polling people.  As they get results, they project results — state by state, the Electoral College — in their Road to 270 map. In other words on the Electoral College map, CNN has made four adjustments since their previous update, and all of them now are in Donald Trump\u2019s direction. <\/p>\n

Ohio, Utah, and Maine, second congressional district, are all moving from toss-up to lean Republican.  New Hampshire is moving from lean Democratic to pure battleground state.  That puts, on CNN\u2019s own map, Hillary Clinton\u2019s projected electoral vote total at 268.  Hillary Clinton has lost… If you look at the RealClearPolitics average<\/a>, you\u2019ll find a bunch of data there.  You find the rolling average of all the polls; then you find state by state, even some district by district, and you find the projected Electoral College totals. <\/p>\n

Hillary Clinton\u2019s down between 50 and 66 electoral votes in the past three weeks.  And in the CNN projection today, Hillary Clinton has gone to 268.  She was projected to be way above that.  The states that CNN has changed puts 66 electoral votes in the toss-up category or back in play.  Now, remember, this is just polling data projections, and one of my bugaboos about this is that people end up treating this stuff as gospel when it\u2019s not.  Nobody really knows.  All of this is based on what people are telling pollsters. <\/line><\/p>\n

You can\u2019t really even rely on that these days, specifically when you\u2019re talking to Trump people. You don\u2019t know who they are.  You don\u2019t know if the pollsters are actually finding them, all of them, and we don\u2019t know… People are very sophisticated today.  Some people really have an animus against polls and lie to them.  There\u2019s not a way to factor all of that, not scientifically at any rate.  You throw in the fact of something we know to be true, and that is the vast majority of mainstream media polling units use polling data as a weapon. <\/p>\n

They use it to make, to shape, to bend public opinion, not reflect it.  But as I\u2019ve warned constantly, as you get closer to Election Day, all of these polling units have reputations.  There\u2019s always the next election, and somebody has to hire them.  And if they are dramatically wrong, consistently so, they\u2019re going to have trouble getting hired and getting work.  So they are in a conundrum.  Well, I should say a dilemma.  Because my guess would be that most of the people in the polling units we\u2019re talking about…<\/p>\n

CNN, ABC, Washington Post, New York Times, CBS, NBC, Wall Street Journal, if you had to guess, those polls all hope… The people working at those polls are all firmly are behind Hillary Clinton.  And I think since objectivity is next to impossible in an informed human being, it\u2019s very hard for those people to keep their desires out of their work. It\u2019s very, very hard to do.  So in all the polling that\u2019s gone on for the past year up until about a week ago, safe to say the majority of it was reported in ways to shape public opinion, not reflect it. <\/p>\n

In other words, we had a poll… Take your pick of any poll. It was Hillary plus 12 two weeks ago.  Why is Hillary now dead even in just two weeks?  What\u2019s happened? Well, you might say the FBI issue.  Wait a minute! Half the country doesn\u2019t know about that because the Drive-By Media hasn\u2019t reported it.  So what would cause Hillary to lose 12 points at Reuters, at Monmouth, at ABC?  What would cause this to happen?  My projection is nothing would cause it to happen.  She never was plus 12 is my point. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s my contention.  She never really was plus 12.  You could get Hillary plus 12 if you sampled Democrats much more frequently than you do Republicans.  There are any number of ways you can get the result that you want.  Any pollster can get any result he wants or she.  But as you get closer to the election, I think, they\u2019ve got to make an effort to get it as accurate as they can get it.  But they\u2019re still desirous of Hillary winning.  I think they have internal conflicts and battles.  The business requirements are that they get it as close to right as possible for future hire. <\/p>\n

So they can get hired again for the next election and the election after that.  I mean, people hire pollsters to poll everything.  You\u2019ve got to have some sort of a resume, a track record of being close or right on the head.  And if you\u2019re not and you\u2019re not often enough, you\u2019re finished.  So they have to do that.  But at the same time they just can\u2019t stomach Trump winning.  So they\u2019ve got this internal conflict of what to do.  That\u2019s how the New York Times has had Hillary up 12, and Nate Silver has had Hillary with a 90% chance of winning. <\/line><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not the case today.  CNN, with these four revisions, puts their projection for Hillary Clinton\u2019s Electoral College vote total now at 268.  You need 270.  So the logical way to look at this would be: What\u2019s happened here to cause Hillary to squander such a big lead?  What\u2019s caused Hillary to plunge from 12% to dead even?  As I say, “Well, Mr. Limbaugh, it would have to be the FBI scandal.”  Whoa! Whoa! Not necessarily. Not enough Americans know about this.  A lot do, don\u2019t misunderstand. <\/p>\n

But, folks, the New York Times, ABC, CBS, NBC, Washington Post, USA Today, LA Times have not covered it.  The closest they got to covering it is when they\u2019re covering Trump and he talks about it.  So you ask, “Was Hillary ever up 12?  Was Hillary up 12 two weeks ago, three weeks ago, a month ago? Was she up 12?”  If she was, look at this both ways. If she was up 12 and it\u2019s now even, that is dramatic fall-off.  Now, can we find behavior on the Clinton side that might tend to indicate that she has dropped 12 points? <\/p>\n

Well, let\u2019s look.  Obama is everywhere; Hillary is not.  Obama is showing up. For every place Hillary goes, he goes to two or three.  <\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Latest election news, if you\u2019re just joining us, CNN, in their polling projections, has made four moves on what they call their Road to 270 Map.  They have a map of states, electoral votes, based on their polling data, they have projected Hillary at 268.  No, no, that\u2019s what she is now.  They\u2019ve projected her at, well, the story doesn\u2019t say.  But I think she was up to around 290.  Some polls had her at 300 electoral votes.  CNN had to make an adjustment.  They now have her at 268 electoral votes, based on their polling and amalgamation of others.  270 is what you need.  Hillary is losing ground. <\/p>\n

The New York Times has her tied, plus three.  That\u2019s the margin of error.  Dead heat with Trump in the New York Times.  State battleground polls are tightening, too.  But I\u2019m telling you, you\u2019ve got to be careful, folks, because you can look in certain places today and you can see the exact opposite story.  You can see Hillary just kicking butt.  You can see stories that the FBI story, the investigation into the foundation has dwindled away, that it\u2019s nothing, that only Fox News is talking about it.  That Hillary is soaring in the polls.  You can find that today, too.  But it isn\u2019t true.  The race is tightening.  <\/line><\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH:  Okay.  Three late-breaking polling items.  First, a polling unit out of Pennsylvania that I\u2019ve never heard of (but I\u2019m going to tell you anyway), Harper Polling, has the race tied: 46-46.  Johnson, two; Stein, one.  Get this: RealClearPolitics just moved Michigan into the toss-up category from leaning Democrat.  That is big!  Michigan? From leaning Democrat to toss-up.  In the RealClearPolitics electoral average, Clinton has just been lowered 208 electoral votes projected.  That is her lowest yet.  Everybody plays by RealClearPolitics.  That\u2019s gospel to all of these political scientists and so forth.  Hillary Clinton\u2019s projected 208 electoral votes and Donald Trump is on the verge of grabbing Hillary Clinton\u2019s Virginia. Keep a sharp eye on that.  <\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Folks, as I look at things, as I\u2019ve said all week, I don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen and I don\u2019t think anybody else does either.  There\u2019s any number of ways to analyze the data that we have.  We have polling data.  We have the places that all the different candidates are going in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nThis Election Defies Traditional Analysis - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/11\/04\/this_election_defies_traditional_analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"This Election Defies Traditional Analysis - 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