{"id":214742,"date":"2016-10-24T18:15:57","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T22:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/172.24.32.11\/daily\/2016\/10\/24\/what_to_make_of_the_polls\/"},"modified":"2016-10-24T18:15:57","modified_gmt":"2016-10-24T22:15:57","slug":"what_to_make_of_the_polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/10\/24\/what_to_make_of_the_polls\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Make of the Polls"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a> <\/p>\n

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RUSH: Folks, I have to tell you, I\u2019m sitting here, I\u2019m feeling odd because normally whenever we get together I am certain about most everything I tell you.  When I have an opinion on something, it\u2019s an opinion and it\u2019s rock solid and I firmly believe it 100%. I\u2019m not used to not knowing. I\u2019m not used to not being confident of what I think.  I don\u2019t know how this is gonna turn out.  I don\u2019t know what to make of these polls.  I am factoring everything you\u2019re factoring.  I look at everything you look at.  And I don\u2019t know. <\/p>\n

For example, you have seen the stories today and through the weekend that the Democrats think they have this already wrapped up, that Trump is already toast. And so what they\u2019re doing, they\u2019re going into red states. Hillary campaign, they\u2019re going to Texas, they\u2019re going to Utah, they\u2019re going to Georgia, they\u2019re going all these places that they never have a prayer, and they\u2019re trying to win back the Senate, and they\u2019re trying to win back the House. <\/p>\n

They\u2019ve already closed Trump out.  Trump is history, he doesn\u2019t know it, his supporters don\u2019t know it, but they do.  The Democrats, it\u2019s over, as far as the media and the Democrats are concerned.  And Hillary today when asked about Trump (imitating Hillary), “You know, I don\u2019t even think about Donald Trump anymore.  You know, I don\u2019t even react to Donald Trump anymore.”  That\u2019s her line. <\/line><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t care what network you watch, maybe with Fox exempted, although certain places at Fox you\u2019ll find the same sentiment.  It\u2019s over.  And they all cite these polls.  They all cite the polls that show Hillary up 10 to 12 points.  And even take the low point at 10, I just saw somebody on CNN, a conservative Republican say, “At 10 points with two weeks it\u2019s over, there\u2019s no way you can reverse that, it\u2019s history.” <\/p>\n

So they all believe the polls.  In fact, their belief in the polls is biblical.  I think these people have a greater confidence and faith in the polls than they do in the Bible.  So it\u2019s over.  And, furthermore, to show you just how over it is, the Democrats are actually now in red states where Trump may win those states, but they\u2019re in there and they\u2019re working down the ballot and they\u2019re gonna win back the House, they\u2019re gonna win back the Senate, and Chuck-U Schumer is gonna end up a majority leader in the Senate.<\/p>\n

And you Republicans, you are toast, do you understand?  You Republicans, it\u2019s toast, and you Republicans had better start doing your postmortems right now, and you had better starting figuring out why this happened. You lost this because you saw to it that Trump was nominated, and if you weren\u2019t for Trump, you better find out who made it possible for Trump to be nominated, and you better do something about those people. <\/p>\n

Well, that just happens to be me, in their opinion.  I still haven\u2019t endorsed anybody in this campaign, are you aware of that?  I still haven\u2019t!  I may be the last person in the country that hasn\u2019t endorsed somebody. At this point it\u2019s meaningless.  The Republicans have already conceited, too.  They\u2019re already starting to form their circular firing squad and starting to aim their weapons at the people they think are responsible for this. And of course it\u2019s not them.  Republicans, no, no, no, no, they have nothing to do with it. <\/p>\n

Now, see, all this talk that I\u2019m engaging in right now, it assumes that Trump\u2019s toast.  It assumes that Trump\u2019s history.  It assumes that Trump doesn\u2019t have a prayer.  It\u2019s based on the fact that Trump never did have a prayer.  But then there\u2019s other data.  Trump rallies are out of sight.  They have more excitement than the combined excitement of Hillary Clinton all year.  They have more attendance.  No matter where they are, people drive hundreds of miles to attend them.  They are happy. They are upbeat. They are optimistic. Wherever Trump goes, blue state, red state, doesn\u2019t matter where he goes. <\/p>\n

By the same token, wherever Hillary goes or any of her surrogates, be it Tim Kaine or Obama or Algore, nobody shows up.  There isn\u2019t any excitement.  You can\u2019t find any excitement for the Clinton campaign even in the media other than from the media.  But you can\u2019t find average American voters who are all excited for Hillary Clinton like you can find beaucoup American voters who are all excited for Donald Trump. <\/p>\n

<\/a>Then you have the LA Times poll that shows Trump up by one, maybe tied now.  Then you have the Investor\u2019s Business Daily today which has Trump up two.  Now, let\u2019s look at that poll.  That poll got it exactly right in 2012.  Romney lost by 3.8 points, and it was the IDB poll, IDB\/Tipps that got it exactly right.  Well, their poll has Trump up by two, and here is their sample.  They sampled 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans, and 259 independents.  They oversampled Democrats by two and a half percent, which is about right, according to party registration and turnout. <\/p>\n

Oversampling Democrats by 2.8, 2.5 is pretty correct. <\/p>\n

But the ABC poll — ready for this?  Democrats sampled 36%, again in the IDB poll, it was — well, I don\u2019t know what the percentages are, but it\u2019s 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans.  So it\u2019s relatively 30-30-30 with fluctuations here and there, the IDB poll.  ABC, 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 31% independent.  So by the time you add this up, 67% of the sample in the ABC poll is not Republican.  Only 27% is.  And that produces a result of Hillary up 12.  And they\u2019re all running with the ABC poll today, the ABC tracking poll. <\/p>\n

So you mix all these together, IDB got it right in 2012.  Their sample seems much more realistic, and it\u2019s much more consistent.  You have the Rasmussen poll that\u2019s basically showing Trump up one, LA Times\/USC poll is even, that\u2019s had Trump up the last three weeks a point, point and a half.  So you have three polls that show this race tied or at two points plus Trump, and all of the others have it Hillary in double digits.  Then you factor what you see and Hillary double digits doesn\u2019t make any sense.  So you start asking yourself, well, does the Drive-By Media have that much influence?  Are there that many people out there who are going to vote, despite the stories we have on her high disapproval numbers are almost up where Trump\u2019s are. <\/p>\n

We had a Zero Hedge story on how the ABC poll gave Hillary a 12-point advantage, and this is a story about the sampling: 36 Democrat, 27 Republican, 31 Independent.  Since 1992, according to Pew Research Center, Democrats have never enjoyed a nine-point registration gap, despite the people at ABC and the Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.  So in this ABC\/Washington Post poll, as a 9% advantage in turnout for Democrats, projected turnout, added to whatever the voter registration increases are.  But according to Pew, the Democrats have never had a nine point registration gap.  So, again, Zero Hedge thinks that we\u2019re all being scammed<\/a>. <\/p>\n