{"id":214222,"date":"2016-08-15T19:57:44","date_gmt":"2016-08-15T23:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/172.24.32.11\/daily\/2016\/08\/15\/notes_from_my_trump_stack\/"},"modified":"2016-08-15T19:57:44","modified_gmt":"2016-08-15T23:57:44","slug":"notes_from_my_trump_stack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/08\/15\/notes_from_my_trump_stack\/","title":{"rendered":"Notes from My Trump Stack"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a> <\/p>\n

\n

RUSH: Okay, from the Trump Stack today.  First off, the Washington Examiner:  “Always-Correct Election Forecast Model Predicts Trump Win 51-48.”  Now, I think this is the last — there might be two.  There might be two polls out there that show Trump either in the lead or tied.  Oh, there\u2019s a third.  A guy has written an app.  Try this.  I forget the man\u2019s name.  Doesn\u2019t matter.  It is not the focal point of the story.  USA Today had the story about a guy who wrote an app for your iPhone, your phone, your iPad, and this app is supposed to be an accurate predictor of who wins. <\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know how that can be because I don\u2019t know how he knows who\u2019s buying the app.  I don\u2019t know how any of \u2019em know.  But USA Today did a big story on this app showing that Trump is much, much stronger than in all of the professional polls.  What I found interesting about it was why would USA Today push this unless they\u2019re trying to mock it and make fun of it, which they didn\u2019t appear to be doing.  It appeared they were trying to do maybe a little puff piece on the software writer, the app developer here.  Damn it, I wish I — it was Saturday I think I saw it.  And I don\u2019t think I printed it out or I would tell you the name of the app.  I\u2019ll see if I can find it. <\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s this.  But that\u2019s grasping at straws, is it not, to go out and find some guy who\u2019s written an app that shows Trump as winning. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s what USA Today was doing, is highlighting the ways in which traditional pollsters now have competition.  But this is Paul Bedard in the Washington Examiner<\/a>. <\/p>\n

“Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988. Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz\u2019s ‘Time for Change\u2019 model done for the University of Virginia\u2019s Center for Politics ‘Crystal Ball\u2019 shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.<\/line><\/p>\n

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory. ‘Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,\u2019 Abramowitz added.”<\/p>\n

If this model showed Hillary winning, it would be the top story in the country, but it doesn\u2019t, so it\u2019s relegated to the Washington Examiner.  Now, it says also here: “However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can\u2019t be trusted.”<\/p>\n

Ah, that\u2019s more like it.  You get a guy that produces a poll that says Trump\u2019s gonna win and the pollster has to throw it out because Trump is so odd, because Trump is so unique that you can\u2019t cast him as other Republicans are.  So this poll does not measure candidate characteristics.  It measures voting patterns by party.  But this guy throws his own poll out because he says Trump is such an oddball and such a strange bird that you really can\u2019t use his model in polling this race.  Well, Trump is that.  Not in the way in which it sounds.  He\u2019s a strange bird in the sense that he does not fit any of the political molds that traditional Republican or Democrats candidates fit into. <\/p>\n

He\u2019s doing everything in the world you shouldn\u2019t do, and he\u2019s doubling down on it.  He\u2019s going to states that don\u2019t have but 10 or 15 Republicans in \u2019em.  He\u2019s now shifted his campaign from Crooked Hillary to the Crooked Media.  He has not focused on the issues that he was focusing on during the primaries.  He still has these raucous and highly popular, well-attended rallies.  But all the experts say, “You can\u2019t extrapolate from that. You can\u2019t say that big crowds equal votes.  You can\u2019t say that excited crowds equal votes.  That\u2019s anecdotal evidence, Rush.  You can\u2019t compare that kind of evidence to actual polling data.” <\/p>\n

So Trump continues to — he\u2019s not spending any money.  You know, here\u2019s a little interesting observation, by the way.  I\u2019ll tell you a little secret.  You\u2019ll know this once I remind you of it.  This time of year, every four years, rivals Christmas in terms of advertising sales for television and radio.  Political campaign spending is over the top.  It now reaches into the billions.  And in a presidential year, that spending goes on all year, and it intensifies from late August all the way through October. <\/p>\n

And the amount of money spent on advertising by presidential candidates and then all the other down ballot candidates — you\u2019ve got Senate, you got House races, you have local races, it\u2019s phenomenal the amount of political revenue, advertising revenue that broadcast outlets rake in, except not this year, \u2019cause Trump isn\u2019t spending any yet.  Well, he\u2019s raised — what\u2019s the number they say he\u2019s raised?  Eighty or 90 million.  He hasn\u2019t spent any yet. <\/line><\/p>\n

The Clinton campaign says they know that.  They\u2019re waiting \u2019cause they think that all of that money\u2019s gonna be dumped into one massive, gigantic Trump attack on her.  They don\u2019t know what about and they don\u2019t know when.  Now, Hillary, she\u2019s the raising her money, and she\u2019s spending it, but the broadcast outlets are taking in less money this presidential year than any year they can remember, \u2019cause Trump\u2019s not spending any.  And, believe me, you might not think it matters, but it does.  It matters that Trump can generate free media whenever he talks.  That ticks them off. <\/p>\n

You know, they don\u2019t want to cover him, but they have to.  But what I\u2019ve noticed, they no longer go the whole rally.  They\u2019ll maybe do 10 or 15 minutes, but they\u2019ll bump out.  ‘Cause they\u2019re not gonna give him any more free media, not like he got during the primaries.  And he\u2019s not spending any yet.  So they\u2019re down some money.  What impact that has on coverage, I don\u2019t know.  I don\u2019t think it would change much.  I\u2019m not saying if Trump started buying a lot of advertising the media would go softer on him.  I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the case.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m just illustrating that this is an entirely different campaign, and there\u2019s lots of scared people, a lot of them on the Republican side.  The very people — in fact, let me put this in perspective for you.  You know that there are many Republicans, you know that there are many conservatives, you know there are many Republican, slash, conservative think tanks, blog sites, that despise the Trumpster.  And they want Trump to lose, they want him to lose so bad, they want him to lose so big, but now they\u2019re starting to ask themselves, “Well, if that really happens, what becomes of us?” <\/p>\n

The thinking all along has been that Trump will destroy only himself, that Trump will lose only himself.  Now they\u2019re beginning to wonder, wait a minute, is there a Trump movement beyond Trump?  Meaning, even after Trump loses, do the people supporting him still support what they support, believe what they believe, and are they still gonna be mad at the Republicans they\u2019re mad at now? <\/p>\n

And then they\u2019re asking themselves, if he loses that badly, if he just gets, I mean, wiped out, what does that mean for the Republican Party?  ‘Cause the Republican Party is what makes them, their position in it, their position of prominence in it, their acceptance in it.  If it goes away, or, worse, if it becomes completely redefined, if the Republican Party becomes something totally unlike what it is now, then where are these people hoping Trump loses, where does it leave them?  They\u2019re starting to think this now.  They probably have been for a while. <\/p>\n

But none of this fits the mold.  And I don\u2019t offer this as an attempt to comfort concerned or worried feelings.  I\u2019m just making the observation.  As I mentioned earlier, the Wall Street Journal has given Trump until Labor Day to get out <\/a>of town.  Honest to God, the ultimatum for Trump to get out by Labor Day and turn this all over to Mike Pence. <\/p>\n

What do all the Trump deserters think will happen if he loses? (interruption) No, no.  No, no.  No, no, no.  I think their original thought was that — here\u2019s the thought process and the strategy.  Okay, we hate Trump, that\u2019s number one.  Therefore, number two, Trump can\u2019t win.  Therefore, number three, we\u2019ve got to be visible and loud opposing Trump, which will cement our credibility as good conservatives and Republicans.  And then we gotta help Trump get defeated. <\/line><\/p>\n

And the thinking goes that Trump will singularly and alone be devastated, leaving them in charge of the party because everybody will say” They told us. They were the smart people. They\u2019ve known since last summer Trump was gonna screw it up. They\u2019ve known since last summer Trump couldn\u2019t win. They tried to tell us, we wouldn\u2019t listen. <\/p>\n

They think that they\u2019re gonna be heralded as a bunch of Nostradamuses. They think they\u2019re gonna be heralded as the guys we should have listened to from the get-go, and the party will thus be theirs.  I think that\u2019s what they think. I don\u2019t know that they still think that. (chuckles) I think they\u2019re worried now the party cease to might exist, if it\u2019s as bad as the media wants you to think. But I think that was their original thought process, that Trump alone would be destroyed and they would be looked to as oracles.  (interruption)<\/p>\n

Well, I don\u2019t know… (interruption) I don\u2019t… (interruption) No.  I wouldn\u2019t say “delusional thinking.”  It may be wishful thinking, but I wouldn\u2019t say it\u2019s delusional. (interruption)  They… (interruption) No, they don\u2019t… (interruption) No, no, no! They don\u2019t think they\u2019re gonna be blamed.  They think that people are gonna look at them and say, “Gee, I wish I\u2019d\u2019a listened to you! Gee, you know, you really are smarter than I am! Gee, you know what? If we\u2019d\u2019a just listened to you,” fill in the blank, “then we wouldn\u2019t have even supported Trump and this debacle wouldn\u2019t have happened!<\/p>\n

“Oh, my God. We\u2019re sorry that we ever got mad you.”  I mean, I think they\u2019re probably thinking that was one of the benefits to opposing Trump.  I have no doubt.  Boston Herald: “Media Bias Could Wind Up Helping Donald Trump.”<\/a> It\u2019s my question from the earliest moments of the program today, speculating right here — asking, not answering, speculating and asking — is this so over the top, this media treatment of Trump? Is it so bad that it\u2019s gonna cause its own backlash, that people are gonna say, “My God, nobody can be this bad!<\/p>\n

“What in the world is this?” and be curious and look further into it.  Well, this is Chris Cassidy, and he writes, “Rampant mainstream media bias against Donald Trump could play right into the GOP presidential candidate\u2019s hands, sparking a sympathetic backlash from voters who see unfair press hits as a heavy-handed shadow campaign to boost Hillary Clinton…”  Let\u2019s be honest about something.  We\u2019re not talking media bias anymore.  We\u2019re so past media bias, we can\u2019t even see media bias in the rearview mirror. <\/line><\/p>\n

We\u2019re way beyond media bias.  They are all-in.  The media is the Hillary Clinton campaign staff.  There\u2019s not even a pretense of objectivity.  It\u2019s so bad, the New York Times had to write a front-page story last weekend talking about how painful it is for real journalists for the first time in their careers out of a sense of duty to adopt an oppositional stance to a candidate.  They\u2019ve never done that before, and since they\u2019ve had to do it with Trump, it also looks like they\u2019re pro-Hillary, and they\u2019re so uncomfortable with this!<\/p>\n

I mean, that\u2019s Puke City, but they wrote it. <\/p>\n

Victor Davis Hanson is quoted here: “His way of thinking is, if I take a battering ram and hit the door long enough, it doesn\u2019t matter what I say, they\u2019ll distort it, and eventually that will hit critical mass and people will turn on the media and Hillary.” He\u2019s not thinking that\u2019s gonna happen. He\u2019s speculating that\u2019s how it could happen — the backlash — if it does.  From TheHill.com:  “Clinton Up in Two Battleground States.”  Anyway, the pile-on news continues, and I\u2019ve got all kinds of new audio sound bites out of Milwaukee, one particularly that I read to you that we now have the actual tape from.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Okay, from the Trump Stack today.  First off, the Washington Examiner:  “Always-Correct Election Forecast Model Predicts Trump Win 51-48.”  Now, I think this is the last — there might be two.  There might be two polls out there that show Trump either in the lead or tied.  Oh, there\u2019s a third.  A guy has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nNotes from My Trump Stack - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/08\/15\/notes_from_my_trump_stack\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Notes from My Trump Stack - 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