{"id":214041,"date":"2016-07-25T16:19:54","date_gmt":"2016-07-25T20:19:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/172.24.32.11\/daily\/2016\/07\/25\/trump_poll_bounce_rattles_experts\/"},"modified":"2017-07-12T09:20:41","modified_gmt":"2017-07-12T13:20:41","slug":"trump_poll_bounce_rattles_experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/07\/25\/trump_poll_bounce_rattles_experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Poll Bounce Rattles Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a><\/p>\n

RUSH: Trump got a convention bounce and it\u2019s a big one, a six-point convention bounce.\u00a0 Now, if you look at Real Clear Politics average of polls, you don\u2019t see six points, because those polls — the average of those polls — consist of a number of days before the convention added to the days of and after the convention.\u00a0 But if you take out the days leading up to the convention — just look at the polling data that comes from the convention and after it — it\u2019s a huge, six-point convention bump.\u00a0 Now, you might say, “Well, that\u2019s no big deal.\u00a0 That\u2019s no big deal, Rush! Every candidate gets a convention bounce.” That\u2019s the thing: That hasn\u2019t been the case in a long time.\u00a0 Let\u2019s go to none other than CNN for the details.<\/p>\n

“Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. … “There hasn\u2019t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN\u2019s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to” the Florida recount, the aftermath, and Supreme Court decision. There haven\u2019t been convention bounces.<\/p>\n

Obama didn\u2019t get one in 2008. Bush didn\u2019t get one in 2004. Nobody got one in 2004, 2008, or 2012. So this is the first convention bounce in the CNN poll — Trump got it — since 2000. That\u2019s CNN, and this… Believe me. Don\u2019t doubt me on this. Despite the smiling and attempts at everything\u2019s okay and all is normal that you\u2019re seeing from Democrats this week, they\u2019re worried. They are panicked. Because Trump was supposed to be nowhere near Hillary. Trump was not supposed to be close, much less leading.<\/p>\n

Because in the conventional world of politics, Trump was supposed to have imploded or have been exposed as a fraud and a know-nothing long ago. I mean, you go back three months, six months. The Democrat Party, the thing they were hoping for was Trump to win the nomination. I mean, they thought that would be a slam dunk, because the guy doesn\u2019t know what he\u2019s doing. They think he\u2019s crazy. They think his support is thin and can be persuaded to abandon him. They don\u2019t know what they\u2019re dealing with.<\/p>\n

But they\u2019re getting an idea now that this is not the way it was supposed to be.<\/p>\n

Last week, ladies and gentlemen, Nate Silver — the vaunted Nate Silver, formerly of the New York Times and now of his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com… This is a guy that the Democrats relied on for comfort. He was their guru during the 2012 presidential campaign.\u00a0 Nate Silver then was analyzing polls.\u00a0 That\u2019s what he does.\u00a0 He analyzes polls; then makes percentage predictions based on his unique analysis.\u00a0 “Only Nate Silver does what he does!” So goes the reputation.<\/p>\n

Only Nate Silver has secret ways of analyzing results and making in-depth predictions based on whoever\u2019s likely to win, not by margin although other polling units do.\u00a0 And last week, Nate Silver was telling all of Democrats (summarized), “Don\u2019t sweat it! Right now, we got Trump at maybe 10 to 15% chance of winning the White House.”\u00a0 Well, Business Insider:\u00a0“Nate Silver:\u00a0 Donald Trump Would Most Likely Win the Election if it Were Held Today.”<\/a>\u00a0 Remember, Democrats believe this guy.\u00a0 This guy is an oracle.<\/p>\n

“If the election were held [today],” and, of course, it isn\u2019t, but if it were, “Donald Trump would likely win.\u00a0 That\u2019s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected [today] for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.\u00a0 In his ‘Now-cast\u2019 election model for who would win if ballots were cast [today], Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency,” up from 10 or 15%. Whatever it was, it was miniscule just a week ago.<\/p>\n

“Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation\u2019s highest office if voters were to take to the polls [today]. … However, in Silver\u2019s polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast…” See, this is why this is special. Nobody else has a “polls-only” or “polls-plus,” but Nate Silver does! In his “polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top.<\/p>\n

“In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.”\u00a0 Nate Silver tweeted, “Don\u2019t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It\u2019s a close election right now.”\u00a0 He\u2019s trying to warn \u2019em.\u00a0 He\u2019s trying to warn the Democrats that things are much worse.<\/p>\n

And then there was a USC survey that was released yesterday, an election forecast, and this one is a track of this outfit\u2019s “best estimate over time of how Americans plan to vote in November.”\u00a0 And the upshot is that… Well, Trump is way ahead in this. Well, not way ahead, but he\u2019s got about, say, an eight-point lead with a 95% confidence level in this poll.\u00a0 It\u2019s just a graph.\u00a0 It\u2019s a graph poll since July 10th, since July 23rd.\u00a0 The point is… It\u2019s a relatively new poll.<\/p>\n

<\/a>“The 2016 USC Dornsife \/ LA Times Presidential Election Poll<\/a> represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans\u2019 opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents … are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most,” and\u00a0\u00a0 in this race it\u2019s Trump.\u00a0 So, again, I\u2019m only mentioning this ladies and gentlemen, because I have been called a “data denier.”\u00a0 I\u2019ve been blamed by others on our side of the aisle for being in denial of data — in other words, by not believing polls.<\/p>\n

This is something that traces back to the Romney-Obama campaign of 2012. “You\u2019ve gotta believe what the data says! You can\u2019t be a data denier.\u00a0 That\u2019s living in a fantasyland!”\u00a0 So I\u2019m just telling what the data is.\u00a0\u00a0In that CNN poll<\/a>, by the way, it\u2019s always the case, particularly with traditional polls.\u00a0 You go to the internals, it\u2019s bad for Hillary.\u00a0 The end result even now has Trump way up.\u00a0 But get this.\u00a0 Hillary Clinton: “Do you consider her honest and trustworthy?”\u00a0 Yes, 30%.\u00a0 No, 68%.\u00a0 That\u2019s CNN and just some of the internals, which do not look good for Hillary.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Trump got a convention bounce and it\u2019s a big one, a six-point convention bounce.\u00a0 Now, if you look at Real Clear Politics average of polls, you don\u2019t see six points, because those polls — the average of those polls — consist of a number of days before the convention added to the days of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump Poll Bounce Rattles Experts - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/07\/25\/trump_poll_bounce_rattles_experts\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Trump Poll Bounce Rattles Experts - 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