{"id":14175,"date":"2012-10-24T16:45:25","date_gmt":"2012-10-24T16:45:25","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-10-24T16:45:25","modified_gmt":"2012-10-24T16:45:25","slug":"obama_s_losing_big_with_men_and_independents","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2012\/10\/24\/obama_s_losing_big_with_men_and_independents\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama\u2019s Losing Big with Men and Independents"},"content":{"rendered":"

RUSH: This is from this morning, CBS This Morning. John Dickerson is on, the political director at CBS, with the co-host, Norah O\u2019Donnell, and they\u2019re talking about Obama\u2019s gender gap.<\/p>\n

O\u2019DONNELL: We talk a lot about the women\u2019s vote and the importance of the women\u2019s vote but Gallup has some interesting numbers out that there\u2019s a actually been a larger change in men than in women\u2019s preferences compared to 2008. Look at this huge split, Romney advantage over Obama. This is a big gap for Obama! What\u2019s happening with Obama support among men?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

DICKERSON: It\u2019s a big and dangerous gap. The president can\u2019t make up for a gap among men, uhh, with women. He\u2019s got to shrink that gap, uh, with men, and — and the thinking basically is that it\u2019s — that it\u2019s on the economy and his stewardship and this notion that four more years of this — what the president has, uh, his economic policies — just isn\u2019t gonna cut it and that men are the ones who are moving on that issue particularly.<\/p>\n

RUSH: So the way to translate that is to say that Obama\u2019s gender gap with men cannot be made up with women. By the way, that\u2019s the way it is every election. I so enjoy informing people after elections of this gender breakout, \u2019cause every four years the Democrats think they gotta get women and every four years women who are gonna determine the outcome. And the bottom line is you don\u2019t win elections without a majority of men.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s very rare that that\u2019s not the case.<\/p>\n

It has, of course, happened, but you don\u2019t win elections without a majority of the men. I don\u2019t say this in any way other than an electoral analysis. It\u2019s just the way it is. But the gender gap is not the only problem Obama\u2019s got. He has a huge gap in independents. It is astounding, and it\u2019s been this way a while. The Democrat Party lost independents big time in the 2010 midterms, and Obama is polling horribly among independents as well as among men, as well as white working-class voters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And I\u2019ll give you the details of the independent gap \u2019cause it\u2019s huge, too.<\/line>BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/line><\/p>\n

RUSH: Okay, so we had a news report, an analyst opinion from CBS that there are simply not enough women voters that Obama could get that can make up for the gender gap that Obama has in men. And it is a fact. We talk about the female vote all the time, but you don\u2019t win without a majority of men. That\u2019s generally the rule. There are exceptions to it of course.<\/p>\n

But if you look at all of these polls, the real gap is in independents. Now, I don\u2019t have any details on the Gallup today. The Gallup poll has tightened. It was Romney plus five. Now it\u2019s Romney plus two. Just get ready. I told you that the Gallup\u2019s an outlier out there. Gallup are the only people that had this at five or six. They finished number 15 or 16 in terms of accuracy in 2008.<\/p>\n

But being out there with Romney five or six… And being sued by the Justice Department, pressured by Obama campaign guy, Axelrod? You put Romney plus five or plus six, and you\u2019ve got room to move Romney down to plus three. And then you can say Obama\u2019s surging. And if you want, you can peg it to the debate on Monday night. And right on cue, the Drive-Bys are reporting an Obama surge today in the Gallup poll.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

All of this is very predictable, and you knew it was gonna happen before it happened because you listen here every day. But the independent gap… Remember what everybody tells us? Every four years we hear, “The independents, the moderates, that\u2019s where elections are won and lost!” Every political consultant tries to get hired by candidates by saying, “I\u2019m the guy that can come up with the strategy that gets you the independents, because you know you can get your base. You don\u2019t need me for that.<\/p>\n

“And the other guy is gonna get his base. And the general rule of thumb is, 40% are committed on the Republican side, 40% on the Democrat side. That leaves that great 20% in the middle.” We\u2019re told every four years by people on our side that you gotta go get that 20%. Now, it\u2019s going, too… A little side line: We\u2019ve got our own little internecine battle going on in the Republican Party.<\/p>\n

The Republican Party does not want conservatism credited for success.<\/p>\n

The Republican Party wants “moderation,” “walking across the aisle,” “working together,” to be the reason the party wins elections. That\u2019s what they want everybody to understand. You know it and I know it. There\u2019s not a whole lot of love for conservatives in the Republican Party. Except now, where the party will take anything they can get to win. They always tell us it\u2019s the independents.<\/p>\n

The reason for that is the independents are undecided,<\/a> and they\u2019re not partisan. They\u2019re not conservatives, they\u2019re not liberals, and so whoever wins with the independents proves the point that they win without the base of the party. Now, the Democrats are not embarrassed of their base. The Republicans, in large part, are. Except around election time where they\u2019ll take it. That\u2019s why I focus here on the independent gap.<\/p>\n

Because we\u2019re told by the experts that the independents is where it\u2019s at. And if that\u2019s true, the independent gap is huge, and it\u2019s pro-Romney. In the latest Rasmussen, Romney is plus four. He\u2019s at 50%. He has a Democrat-plus-three advantage in his sample, and Romney is plus 12 in independents. Now, I know numbers are hard to follow when I tell \u2019em to you. We\u2019ll link to this chart at RushLimbaugh.com.<\/p>\n

But the numbers will still make an impact. The Gallup poll. Not today\u2019s. Yesterday\u2019s Gallup poll had Romney plus five, but we don\u2019t know what the independent spread there was and we don\u2019t know what the party ID split was. All we know is Romney was plus five. In the ABC\/Washington Post tracking poll, the latest data is Romney plus one with a Democrat sample of plus five. But Romney\u2019s plus nine in independents.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

That\u2019s huge. According to what we\u2019ve been told by the expert strategists and consultants, that\u2019s all it is. If Romney\u2019s this far ahead in independents, Obama doesn\u2019t have a chance because independents determine the outcome, right? That\u2019s what they always tell us. Public Policy Polling\/Daily Kos poll: Romney plus four. Democrat sample plus two. Romney plus 14 independents. Public Policy Polling separate poll, daily track:<\/p>\n

Candidates are even. Democrat sample of plus four. Romney plus seven independents. Ipsos\/Reuters: Obama leads by one with a Democrat sample of plus four but Romney is plus five in independents in a poll that shows Obama up one. Investor\u2019s Business Daily: Obama plus two, Democrat sample plus seven, Romney plus 11 independents. ARG, Associated Research Group or whatever it is: Romney plus two, Democrat sample of plus five, but Romney plus 16 independents.<\/p>\n

Monmouth Survey USA. This is USA Today. They use Survey USA a lot. Romney plus three, Democrat sample of plus four. Romney plus 19 independents. Just to shorten this up, without mentioning the polls, here\u2019s the independent spread in the polls I just mentioned to you: Romney plus 12, Romney plus 9, Romney plus 14, Romney plus 7, Romney up 5, Romney up 11, Romney up 16, Romney up 19. There are only two polls that have Obama up in independents.<\/p>\n

One\u2019s CBS. That has him up four with independents. The other is Politico, the Battleground poll. That has Obama up one with independents. Well, in The Politico poll, Romney\u2019s winning plus two, Democrat sample plus four. So the independent gap here is big, and it is plus Romney. It\u2019s the latest data, but it does not include today. It\u2019s polling data as of yesterday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: This is from this morning, CBS This Morning. John Dickerson is on, the political director at CBS, with the co-host, Norah O\u2019Donnell, and they\u2019re talking about Obama\u2019s gender gap. 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