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<\/p>\nRUSH: I want to go through the latest polling data and some of the other interesting things that are happening out there. It\u2019s fascinating to me to watch all this, to absorb all the polling data, like Quinnipiac is out, got Obama up five in Ohio, but Romney\u2019s winning independents left and right. So much of it is genuinely confusing. <\/p>\n
First, from TampaBay.com: “Democrats Face an Early Vote Hurdle in Florida.” Now, as you know, the Suffolk Polling unit pulled out of Florida weeks ago claiming there was no need to poll it anymore. Romney wins Florida. Another polling group pulled out of Florida yesterday, the same thing. They had a poll that showed Romney up six, 51-45. I don\u2019t remember the name of the polling company, doesn\u2019t matter. The Real Clear Politics polling average now has Romney leading Obama by just a single point, up against Suffolk and the other polling unit, which say it\u2019s over and they\u2019ve pulled out. <\/p>\n
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I\u2019m reading to you from TampaBay.com: “The latest Quinnipiac poll showing Obama up a point is sure to draw some scoffs from Republicans since its sample was 37 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent.” In summary, all of the polls out there — and there are a few, folks — that show Obama winning in the swing states and that show Obama winning the national popular vote, there are polls that show Obama up one, up three, and up five. And every one of those polls is based on a turnout identical to 2008. So if the turnout next Tuesday is identical to 2008, then these polls are gonna be right and Obama\u2019s gonna win by one, three, or five, whatever. They all depend, every poll that has Obama up, also shows Romney way up in independents but a Democrat sample of minimum plus seven. <\/p>\n
Now, the theory has always been, as espoused by me, El Rushbo, that polling units at this point in the campaign try to get it as close to accurate as possible for their own credibility so that they will be hired in the next campaign and that they will be believed and have credibility in future races where polling is required. And every one of these companies that have now shown up, primarily their last poll, CBS has got their last poll out now, shows the president up but with a turnout identical, in terms of Democrat advantage, to what it was in 2008. A lot of people go back to 1980, by the way, and look at the Reagan-Carter poll. The polling was a lot less sophisticated 1980 and it took place a lot less frequently. The last poll — I think it was Gallup, but I\u2019m not sure — that came out on this day relative to the election showed Carter up six, and Ronaldus Magnus went on to win. <\/p>\n
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Now, the reason that Ronaldus Magnus went on to win is, and what the polling data didn\u2019t show, is that he picked up one out of four Democrats on Election Day, the famed Reagan Democrats. They didn\u2019t show up on the polling data, but on Election Day Reagan got 25% of Democrats in addition to his own base and whatever number of independents, and that\u2019s why Reagan\u2019s landslide wasn\u2019t reflected in the polls because the polls didn\u2019t show that. So if you want to compare today to 1980, do you want suggest that 25% of Democrats are gonna vote for Romney? It\u2019s a little risky. <\/p>\n
You\u2019ve got a much different demographic division in the country now than you had in 1980. Polling is much different, less sophisticated, but it still is true that in 1980 the pollsters missed it. And, by the way, something else in that campaign in 1980 that needs to be mentioned that nobody talks about if you\u2019re interested in comparisons. There were polls that showed Reagan up in that campaign in the fall. Not many, but there were some. It was just the final poll had Jimmy, the peanut farmer, up six. And now you know why. <\/p>\n
Now, back to the polling summary that I have here. This is, again, sticking with TampaBay.com. They\u2019ve got their Quinnipiac poll that shows Romney down by one, Obama leading by a single point with a Democrat turnout of 37%, 30% Republican, 29% independent. They\u2019re predicting Obama to win Florida. Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager, said, “In Florida Democrats now lead in ballots cast just 48 hours after in-person early voting began.” However, that\u2019s not right. “A Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, Democrats held a 134,774-vote lead in Florida. As of yesterday. Democrats led by less than 41,000 — a nearly 70 percent drop. The Obama campaign does not dispute those numbers.”<\/p>\n
Now, I don\u2019t know what to make of this other than what\u2019s on the surface. If the Democrat early vote is down 70% from 2008, what does it mean? It means there\u2019s less Democrat enthusiasm. It means obviously fewer Democrat votes in the early voting. But we won\u2019t know until Election Day.<\/p>\n
From the Business Insider. “President Barack Obama has seen a once-steady lead in Michigan decline to just 2 points in a recent poll, and Michigan has been thrown into ‘toss-up\u2019 status in the election\u2019s final week. The poll, from The Detroit News, finds Obama leading Republican rival Mitt Romney, 47.7 percent to 45 percent. That\u2019s the second poll in a week that has shown an increasingly tight race in the state, including a Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll that showed the race virtually tied. And it comes as a pro-Romney super PAC, American Crossroads, includes Michigan in its $50 million, final-week ad buy.”<\/p>\n
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That\u2019s one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that the momentum shift in Pennsylvania is such that the Romney camp wants to add it to the total. It\u2019s an interesting thing. Michigan, Wisconsin… Well, not so much Wisconsin. Maybe Wisconsin. Let\u2019s throw \u2019em in there. Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania have not seen political ads this campaign. There hasn\u2019t been any money spent there.<\/p>\n
Now, you are probably sick and tired of campaign ads. I got e-mails from people who say their kids think that they\u2019re watching The Walking Dead when they see an Obama commercial. They\u2019ve seen \u2019em so many times that they\u2019re getting scared. But factor this in. Pennsylvania, the campaign ads running now are virgin. They haven\u2019t seen any. They\u2019re not worn out, like you are in your local market. Same thing in Michigan.<\/p>\n
So the question becomes: What kind of impact, if any, are they going to have?<\/p>\n
And then Snerdley came in and said, \u00c2\u201cYou know, I don\u2019t understand about advertising.\u00c2\u201d He said, \u00c2\u201cWe\u2019re in the advertising business, and we know it works. Otherwise you wouldn\u2019t be on the air.\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n
I said, \u00c2\u201cYeah, what\u2019s your point?\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00c2\u201cWell, my point is: When it works, why do they wait until now to start spending money in Pennsylvania? Why didn\u2019t Romney put some money in Pennsylvania three weeks ago or two months ago? I mean, we give up on a state?\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n
And I launched into my detailed, flawless answer. It all has to do with resources and allocation and how much money you\u2019ve got at the time, how much money you think you\u2019re gonna have, and what kind of bang for the buck you think you\u2019re gonna get. And it\u2019s an interesting question when you frame it in the context of: \u00c2\u201cOkay, they didn\u2019t think it was worth any time, money, effort to be on the ground and spending any money in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
Now here we are five\/six days out, and four million bucks goes in there from the Romney side. Are they doing it because Obama is collapsing and there\u2019s a chance to actually win the state? Or are they doing it as a head fake to get Obama to spend some of his money there instead of other battleground states? Only Romney knows. We do not know. And we could speculate and that\u2019s all that it would be. Now, back to the Detroit News poll.<\/p>\n
Key points in the poll: \u00c2\u201cWhat\u2019s pushing Romney to a virtual statistical tie in the state is his clear advantage on trust in handling the economy.\u00c2\u201d That\u2019s what the polling data says. “He leads the president, 47-44, on the crucial issue, even in a state dominated by the auto industry. Compared with September, men have shifted 5 points more toward Romney. What\u2019s keeping Obama afloat [in Michigan]:<\/p>\n
\u00c2\u201cHis advantage in connecting with voters who think he \u00c2\u2018understands their values.\u00c2\u2019 Forty-eight percent identified with Obama on that question, compared with just 43 percent for Romney. Obama also has a significant, 8-point advantage on handling foreign affairs.” No word here on independents in this state. But in Ohio, depending on the poll, you\u2019re gonna find Romney up 19 — 23, in fact — with independents.<\/p>\n
Remember one year ago, just about, there was a column in the New York Times. And it was by Thomas B. Edsall<\/a>. Thomas B. Edsall\u2019s a former columnist for the Washington Post. Now he\u2019s a pooh-bah at the Huffing and Puffington Post, and he\u2019s also an undeclared Obama campaign aide, as is most everybody in the Drive-By Media. And he wrote a piece last November suggesting — not suggesting; informing us.<\/p>\n He was telling everybody that strategically the Obama campaign was writing off the white working-class vote. You\u2019ve heard me say this over and over again. He\u00c2\u2019s writing it off. The bitter clingers. The Obama campaign had figured that they had angered that group of people so much that they weren\u2019t going to get them, so they weren\u2019t gonna spend any money in areas dominated by white working-class voters.<\/p>\n Well, Jeff Zeleny in the New York Times has a story today: “Ohio Working Class May Offer Key to Obama\u00c2\u2019s Re-election — As President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the presidential race, where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio are seen by both sides as critical to victory, Mr. Obama\u00c2\u2019s ability to prevent erosion among working-class voters may be his best path to re-election.”<\/p>\n What?<\/p>\n Prevent erosion?<\/p>\n They\u2019re telling us now that he needs white working-class voters that he wrote off a year ago? How is that gonna work out? “In Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters by Quinnipiac University\/New York Times\/CBS News, Mr. Obama runs nearly even with Mr. Romney among white voters who do not have college degrees. … The poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees here say the economy is improving, and most give Mr. Obama some credit.”<\/p>\n That\u2019s the Quinnipiac poll. They are trying to tell us that white working-class voters are now moving towards Obama even though he wrote \u2019em off. So I find all this stuff fascinating. I\u00c2\u2019m just throwing it in the pot here, folks, for you to stir yourself. Then there\u2019s also this quote from \u00c2\u201cone poll respondent, Dana Hogan of Cincinnati.<\/p>\n \u00c2\u201c\u00c2\u2018Do I really think we\u00c2\u2019re going to go back to the point where women won\u00c2\u2019t be able to have abortions or birth control is going to be rationed? That\u00c2\u2019s just silly to even think of,\u00c2\u2019 said Ms. Hogan, who works at a small company and spoke in a follow-up interview. \u00c2\u2018Some women do still get really riled up by that, but I think it\u00c2\u2019s just a scare tactic. Really, you think women are that dumb?\u00c2\u2019\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n Well, the Obama campaign does, yes.<\/p>\n You need to know that: The Obama campaign does think you are that dumb.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: This Quinnipiac poll in Ohio, by the way, has a plus-eight Democrat sample. Don\u2019t forget, now: Both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the Republicans on Election Day next Tuesday are gonna have a plus one to plus two turnout advantage. And, by the way, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008. That\u2019s a big spread. Quinnipiac\/CBS in Ohio, they\u2019re sampling 8% more Democrats than Republicans to come up with their number here.<\/p>\n And, you know, people say, \u00c2\u201cWell, Rush, you have said that these people want to be accurate toward the end of the race for their reputations, credibility, and all that. Why would they be so off? Why would they continue to sample Democrats by plus eight, if that\u2019s not gonna be the turnout spread?\u00c2\u201d There is an answer to that, and it can be found in an answer I gave an e-mailer earlier this week.<\/p>\n The e-mail said, \u00c2\u201cYou know, Obama\u00c2\u2019s not doing anything? He doesn\u2019t look like he cares. It\u00c2\u2019s like he\u2019s given up. What\u2019s Obama doing? I can\u2019t believe he\u2019s suspended his campaign.\u00c2\u201d I said, \u00c2\u201cHe hasn\u2019t. He\u2019s strategizing with his lawyers.\u00c2\u201d I guarantee you: While he\u2019s in the Situation Room getting photographed caring about the storm, he\u2019s reviewing an election aftermath that features lawsuits.<\/p>\n Now, how do you set that up?<\/p>\n How do you set it up that the election has been stolen from you? How do you set it up that there\u2019s been fraud and you need lawyers in there? Well, you have all these polls that show Obama up five in Ohio with a plus-seven Democrat sample. And let\u2019s say the real returns shows that Romney wins Ohio. Well, bango! You\u2019re gonna have every Democrat in the country thinking Ohio was stolen from \u2019em, \u00c2\u2018cause they believe the polls more than they believe actual vote counts.<\/p>\n I\u00c2\u2019m just throwing possibilities out. I\u2019m not making any predictions. I\u2019m just throwing possibilities out to explain obvious questions that people have when they hear all of this.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: It might be useful to go back to 2008 and examine some of the preelection polls, final polls before the election. Back in 2008, Gallup had Obama up 11. This year they\u2019ve got Romney up six or seven. (I get them confused, but it\u2019s one of the two.) CBS News had Obama winning by nine in 2008. ABC News\/Washington Post had Obama winning by nine. The CBS News\/New York Times had Obama winning by 11 in 2008.<\/p>\n His actual margin was seven.<\/p>\n So every poll way overshot Obama in 2008, and they were as much in the tank for him then as they are now. The Pew people (P-e-w: Pew) and Rasmussen nailed it. Rasmussen was practically right on the exact number. Of seven-point whatever the decimal was. But Gallup, CBS, ABC, and CBS\/New York Times had him anywhere from nine to 11 points up.<\/p>\n Now, just to reiterate: I had to run through this in a hurry at the bottom of the hour, \u2019cause people are, quite understandably, challenging me. I deserve to be challenged. \u00c2\u201cThese polls,\u00c2\u201d I said, \u00c2\u201cyou wait. You get down to the final week, and we\u2019re gonna get the right ones,\u00c2\u201d and so here we go. Quinnipiac has Obama cleaning up in Ohio. It\u00c2\u2019s not even close. It\u00c2\u2019s five points. Democrat sample, plus seven.<\/p>\n Well, I\u2019m just telling you: One of the things that could be going on. I never — I never — underestimate how in the tank any media or political organization in this country will be and can be and is for a Democrat, particularly Obama. There\u2019s a special attachment that all these media people have to Obama because they created the myth. They created this whole messiah business.<\/p>\n They created The One!<\/p>\n They created the empty canvas that let you make Obama be whatever you wanted him to be, because they were invested entirely in the historical aspect of Obama\u2019s election. \u00c2\u201cThe first black president.\u00c2\u201d Civil rights and racial matters are among the most animating aspects of media people, be it in sports or news. At this level, it\u2019s one of the key things.<\/p>\n Therefore you have a poll like Quinnipiac University or whatever it is, and they\u2019re totally invested in Obama, thriving, winning, and being seen in a good light. I mean, it\u2019s their credibility on the line as well. So I have no doubt. If it were to ever be proven that they purposely falsified — not falsified, but if they purposely misallocated respondents in a poll in order to get the result they want — I wouldn\u2019t doubt it. I would not be one of these people saying, \u00c2\u201cI don\u2019t believe that. They wouldn\u2019t do that!\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n I totally would believe it, and then I would look at why. The thought of Obama losing this… Do you know how you feel at the thought of Romney losing this? Have you planned ahead to getting up the day after the election? You go to bed, hypothetically here, after Obama has won. Have you thought about how you are gonna feel the next day? You don\u2019t want to think about that, do you? Because you\u2019re thinking country\u2019s over!<\/p>\n I mean, as we know it and as founded, it\u00c2\u2019s over. Oh, you know how scared you\u00c2\u2019d be. Well, multiply that when looking at these people and how they are thinking they would feel. They\u2019ve thrown everything at this race. They\u2019re ignoring Benghazi. They\u2019re ignoring Obama corruption and incompetence every day. They\u2019re going out of their way to ignore all the warning signs.<\/p>\n They\u2019re going out of their way to suppress all the news that could in any way be harmful to Obama because they are personally invested. So I wouldn\u2019t have any doubt if somebody told me factually that they played around with the polls, because, if Romney wins, then there\u2019s a strategy. And that is to immediately invalidate Romney and his election, just exactly what happened in 2000.<\/p>\n From the moment that election was declared over and Bush the winner, the media and the Democrat Party sprung into action and set the table so that it was totally illegitimate. \u00c2\u201cHe was not a legitimately elected president. He was appointed by a partisan Supreme Court. Therefore he has no right to implement his agenda. He didn\u2019t really win.\u00c2\u201d<\/p>\n Well, they\u2019re gonna do the same thing here.<\/p>\n But you can\u2019t do that unless you suspect fraud somewhere. There\u2019s no Supreme Court that we can see deciding the election this year. So what will? Well, you put out a bunch of polls in Ohio and other swing states that show Obama winning not by a squeaker, one or two. No, you put polls out show Obama winning five, and then Romney wins it? Can you imagine what\u2019s next? They\u2019re gonna say Ohio was stolen.<\/p>\n Their lawyers already have the papers ready to file. That\u2019s what Obama has been working on the Situation Room, with pictures of the hurricane disaster on the TV. He\u2019s been working with his lawyers on this. I take you back to 2004. The exit polls came in two waves, two p.m. and five p.m. Both waves of exit polls had John Kerry winning the presidency in a landslide, and the two o\u2019clock wave…<\/p>\n I remember when I saw the two o\u2019clock wave. My heart started fluttering. \u00c2\u201cOh, no, this can\u2019t be.\u00c2\u201d The five o\u2019clock came, and I said, \u00c2\u201cWait a minute.\u00c2\u201d I honestly did. I started getting suspicious. And then I read that Bob Shrum, who was Kerry\u2019s campaign manager, walked into Kerry and said, \u00c2\u201cMay I be the first to address you as \u00c2\u2018Mr. President,\u00c2\u2019 sir.\u00c2\u201d Well, then the polls closed and they started counting the votes.<\/p>\n And the real votes showed that Kerry was gonna lose Ohio by 55,000 votes and not come close to winning the presidency. The exit polls could not have been more wrong. Do you remember what happened? The Democrats immediately said that the popular vote tally was what was corrupt, and that there had been fraud and cheating. And then they got the Diebold voting machine argument going about how they were all in the tank for Bush.<\/p>\n \u00c2\u201cBecause look what the exit polls said!\u00c2\u201d They said, \u00c2\u201cThe exit polls are what really happened here. Something happened. People voted but they didn\u2019t get their votes counted right.\u00c2\u201d And that lasted. They tried that for a week or two. The same thing is gonna happen here. If Romney wins, they\u2019re gonna have all these polls that show Obama winning Ohio by five points or by two or three, whatever.<\/p>\n And if Romney wins it, you\u2019re set up. \u00c2\u201cThere\u2019s fraud!\u00c2\u201d Unless this is a Reaganesque-type landslide for Romney, you just prepare yourself. The hand-to-hand combat is gonna keep going. And we\u2019re gonna hear all about how Romney\u2019s election was illegitimate and he\u2019s illegitimate and his agenda is illegitimate. That\u2019s just how they play the game. It\u2019s how they do it.<\/p>\n Okay, we got more polling data to go through: Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the latest Franklin & Marshall poll out of Pennsylvania. It\u2019s 48-44 Obama, 5% undecided. What this poll shows is an Obama collapse in Pennsylvania. Nobody thinks Pennsylvania\u2019s in play. Nobody thinks it\u2019s even possible that a Republican could win Pennsylvania. With Obama only up four, just barely outside the margin of error, people\u2019s red flags are going up. It\u2019s a huge drop. In September, Obama was up, in this poll, 50-39. Eleven points. Obama has dropped seven points in Pennsylvania since the end of September. <\/p>\n Now, the people looking at that, “Okay, he\u2019s within striking distance. Let\u2019s go spend some money.” And here\u2019s the money, as it\u2019s being spent in Pennsylvania, updated money figure. Television money, Romney super PAC Restore Our Future and a second GOP-leaning super PAC, Americans for Job Security, have kicked in $3.2 million, a $3.2 million ad buy that does not count the $600,000 that Crossroads put in earlier this week, or the $120,000 directly from the Romney campaign. All told, that\u2019s almost $4 million in TV ads starting this week inundating people in Pennsylvania. <\/p>\n The Obama campaign has answered with about $650,000. And again, there\u2019s nothing solid here. I mean, you can\u2019t predict anything on this, just see trends, momentum. And then you have to analyze, are they spending the money here just to make it look like they\u2019re putting out an effort so their supporters think they\u2019re trying? Are they playing rope-a-dope trying to get Obama to spend money in there that he would rather spend elsewhere? It could be anything. Only Romney knows, folks. Only the Romney campaign knows why they\u2019re putting money in there. And the obvious conclusion they want people to draw is they think there\u2019s a chance to win this. That\u2019s what they want people to think. Chance to win Pennsylvania. <\/p>\n Obama\u2019s $650,000, as best anybody can tell, is being dumped in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. But that\u2019s not close to $4 million. And the fact that they have to suddenly dump money in media markets which are Democrat strongholds means that they either need to hold the fort in places they hadn\u2019t counted on the fort being at risk, or they\u2019ve been rope-a-doped in and they\u2019re not taking any chances. Jim Messina again, the Obama campaign adviser, “We\u2019re not gonna take anything for granted. We\u2019re gonna make sure we\u2019re doing what we need to do on the ground. We\u2019re gonna go up in Pennsylvania. You\u2019re gonna put $4 million in there, we\u2019re going in,” and they have, $650,000. Messina said, “They understand,” Romney, “they understand they\u2019re not gonna win Ohio, so now they\u2019re getting desperate.” So that\u2019s the Obama spin on this money. Romney hasn\u2019t put out any spin. They\u2019re letting the money speak for itself.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: Look, I\u2019m just going through the polling data now. I told you what was gonna happen here. Why\u00c2\u2019s everybody questioning me? I\u2019ve laid this out as well as anybody else has. Just a couple, three more things and then we\u2019re gonna get to Christie<\/a> who has agreed to play the role of a Greek column today for Barack Obama, as they tour the destruction of the one-percenters on the Jersey shore.<\/p>\n Ladies and gentlemen, here\u00c2\u2019s another one from TheHill.com. They have a piece by a college professor, Bruce Gyory. G-y-o-r-y. Bruce Gyory is from the University of Albany. You\u00c2\u2019ve heard of him, right? (interruption) You don\u2019t know who Bruce Gyory is? Well, I don\u2019t, either. Bruce Gyory says that all these likely voter polls are dead wrong. The likely voter polls are the worst polls to look at. He says Obama\u2019s gonna win this election 51-47.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/00-24_7Self585_579146b6351dd.jpg\"\/)
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